Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
418 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

The main story this weekend is Hurricane Ida, although the near term
only covers through Saturday evening, we will already begin to see
impacts from Ida across our region starting tomorrow afternoon.
Current high res models have an outer rainband, potentially
forced by both the enhanced easterly flow due to high pressure to
our north and Ida to our south, stretching across our region from
the SE Florida Big Bend through SE Alabama. The exact placement of
this band isn't fixed and may very well change depending on how
organized Ida is after it crosses Cuba. Given the near 2 inch PWAT
that will be over our region tomorrow, this band, if it
materializes, could produce localized heave rain and flash
flooding. Otherwise, no other impacts from Ida are expected over
land and this band is expected to wind down by sunset. Expect
daytime highs in the low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

As Hurricane Ida makes landfall in Louisiana on Sunday, we will be
on the eastern side with some of the rain and a few thunderstorms
from Ida's outer bands. The best chance of seeing any rain bands on
Sunday will be in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama with
chances for rain decreasing farther east over southern Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend. Rain bands will start near the coast and
offshore in the morning, then working their way inland through the
day. Some heavy downpours are possible in some of the rain bands
given the tropical airmass (PWATs of 2.0-2.25"). Additionally, it is
still a bit uncertain if a localized tornado threat materializes in
the outer bands this far east. Most local impacts from Ida will be
confined to rip currents and marine hazards.

The cloud cover and higher rain chances will keep high temperatures
in the middle to upper 80s in southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle with lower 90s expected farther east.

The risk for potentially deadly rip currents and high surf continues
Sunday along our local beaches with surf heights of 5-8 feet
possible.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

A mid-level ridge over the Carolinas will weaken and pivot southward
off the east coast of Florida. This will take Ida over the lower
Mississippi Valley northeastward over the Tennessee Valley through
the middle of next week. Ida's remnants will continue moving east or
northeastward over the southern Appalachians through the end of the
week.

Locally, this will leave our CWA on the southern side of Ida's
circulation, keeping us in moist onshore flow with high PWAT values
in excess of 2 inches. Outer rain bands will continue impacting our
area on Monday as Ida continue moving inland over the lower
Mississippi Valley, with the best chance of rain remaining over our
western zones. Locally heavy downpours are possible in some of the
bands. It remains too early to determine if there will be a low-end
isolated tornado threat this far east, but it will continue to be
monitored.

As the movement of Ida and the mid-level ridge occurs, it's possible
we see a convergence zone and the possible development of a feeder
band set up mid-week. This could enhance rain chances in the Florida
Panhandle and southeast Alabama on Tuesday, possibly spreading into
the Big Bend on Wednesday. We will also need to monitor this
potential for a localized flood threat if this scenario pans out.
High temperatures will range from the middle 80s in western areas to
the lower 90s in eastern areas.

As Ida's circulation weakens over the southeast US, we will return
to more of a seabreeze pattern heading into the latter part of next
week with PoPs decreasing to 30-40%.

Dangerous rip currents remain possible into at least the early part
of next week as surf heights will be slow to subside.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

A line of showers and storms associated with the Atlantic sea breeze
is currently moving west across the region. Brief gusty winds and
heavy rainfall may be possible at ABY and TLH within the next hour
or two. Once the line of showers and storms moves past TLH and ABY
it is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity as it
approaches DHN and ECP eventually winding down completely after
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Ida will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, then
make landfall in Louisiana on Sunday. Rain bands from Ida will
impact the waters through this weekend and possibly lingering into
early next week. Tropical storm conditions will be possible in
the western offshore waters Saturday night into Sunday with
sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and gusts up to 40 knots
possible. Winds elsewhere will be sustained around 15 to 25 knots
with gusts to near 30 knots. Waves will build to 11 to 14 feet in
the western offshore waters with 7 to 11 foot seas elsewhere this
weekend. Waves will be slow to subside and will fall below
advisory criteria Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hurricane Ida will strengthen while moving across the Gulf of Mexico
this weekend, however the bulk of the impacts will remain west of
the region. Winds will generally be around 5-10 mph with RH values
generally greater than 60 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The remaining couple of river points in flood will continue to fall
through the weekend. As mentioned above, increased moisture across
the region will lead to increased PoP chances, especially as Ida
moves closer to the region. While heaviest rainfall totals will
remain well west of the region, there are portions of the Florida
Panhandle that could see 2-4 inches with locally heavier amounts
through Wednesday. With portions of the Panhandle still sensitive
from heavy rains from Fred just a couple weeks ago, it will not
take much to cause flash flooding in these areas if the scenario
mentioned above develops, and a quasi-stationary boundary causes
training of showers and thunderstorms across these areas. As the
forecast becomes more refined, rainfall totals will also become
more honed in over the coming days. Therefore, please keep up with
the latest forecasts of Ida and any changes in future rainfall
forecasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  92  75  91  75 /  50  80  30  60  20
Panama City   75  90  76  87  76 /  50  70  50  80  50
Dothan        73  90  74  89  73 /  20  80  20  60  30
Albany        75  92  75  93  74 /  20  70  10  40  10
Valdosta      75  91  75  92  73 /  30  80  10  40  10
Cross City    76  92  75  92  74 /  40  80  30  60  10
Apalachicola  77  87  77  86  77 /  60  70  60  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters
     From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Bunker

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