Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
407 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

There should be a fairly quick wrap up to our diurnal convection
this afternoon and evening with the PWATs a little lower in days
past and more dry air just off the surface. In turn, it seems there
are some fairly high heat indices through our Florida counties which
line up well with the heat advisory. Southern Georgia is just below
criteria but we have another few hours before temperatures begin the
slow fall down the diurnal curve.

High pressure slides to the west which places our area in northwest
flow aloft. This northwest flow will pin some seabreeze convection
into our Florida counties as well as bring in some convection from
central Alabama down into our area. By the afternoon there is a good
chance for rain through our central and southern sections.

Highs tomorrow are in the low 90s north to mid 90s near the coast.
Dewpoints remain high but heat indices appear to be just shy of heat
advisory criteria. The overnight shift will evaluate for another
heat advisory.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

As the ridge continues to move westward a potential temporary
weakening in the ridge throughout the day on Friday is likely as a
trough over the Midwest rides over the ridge and tries to extend
southward across the Eastern Seaboard. This could allow the trough
to drop a backdoor cold front across the region on Saturday which
lingers around into the long term. However, with subsidence in
place, robust convection is not anticipated. Expect daytime highs
in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Through the long term a strong ridge builds over the southern half
of CONUS placing us in the usual summertime pattern; hot, humid and
daily afternoon thunderstorms. Although the extent and robustness of
storms aren't expected to be great as subsidence and dry air aloft
act to inhibit much development. The stationary boundary that is
left over the region over the weekend is expected to dissipate by
midweek, which should return us to a sea breeze dominant pattern.
Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in
the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly in
the Florida counties associated with the seabreeze this
afternoon. It doesn't appear there will be a lot of inland
penetration so will keep VCTS at ECP/TLH/VLD. DHN/ABY will remain
VFR. VFR is expected overnight with a slight vsby restriction at
VLD around dawn.

&&

.MARINE...

The main marine concerns over the next couple days are long-period
swells generated by Tropical Storm Grace currently over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Periods up to 15 seconds are forecast across our waters
this afternoon, followed by a decreasing trend to around 10 seconds
on Friday. This is indicative of a lot of wave energy for only a
significant wave height of 2-3 ft (4 ft seas are possible in some
spots), which may cause surprisingly rough conditions at inlets
during ebb currents and in shallow nearshore areas. Conditions are
also favorable for a high rip current risk at all beaches through
the weekend. Otherwise, light winds prevail outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days other than erratic and gusty winds near thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Warning continues for Steinhatchee (US-19) and the Suwannee
Rivers (Manatee Springs/Wilcox/Rock Bluff). The former should
continue to slowly fall while remaining in minor flood stage until
further notice. The latter are forecast to stay mostly in a cresting
trend over the next few days. Otherwise, there are no flood concerns
as estimated rainfall amounts are generally 1-2" through mid-next
week. Isolated higher accumulations are possible from stronger
storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  93  75 /  10  50  30  70  30
Panama City   76  90  77  91  77 /  10  40  30  60  40
Dothan        74  90  74  90  73 /  20  60  20  70  30
Albany        76  91  75  93  75 /  10  50  30  60  30
Valdosta      75  93  74  92  75 /  20  50  30  70  30
Cross City    76  94  76  91  76 /  20  30  30  60  30
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  77 /  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
557 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ017-026-027-192230-
Liberty FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
557 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Wakulla, central Liberty and southwestern Leon Counties through 630
PM EDT...

At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of Blountstown. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Telogia, Jewel Fire Tower and Clio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8464 3019 8461 3017 8486 3036 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 091DEG 0KT 3028 8478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
613 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

FLZ017-018-192245-
Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-
613 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Jefferson and southeastern Leon Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Woodville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Chaires, Chaires Crossroads, Fanlew, Wacissa, Wacissa Springs,
Thomas City and Capitola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 8388 3027 8388 3025 8390 3024 8392
      3021 8392 3032 8420 3047 8412 3036 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 215DEG 2KT 3033 8402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AH