Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
600 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Monday] Pockets of MVFR ceilings are possible early
this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For late
tonight into Monday morning, easterly/southeasterly flow will
increase in addition to increased chances for MVFR conditions as
the outer portions of Fred begin to affect the region, especially
around ECP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [441 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Distinct upper level low was observed this morning spinning across
the northern Gulf as it slowly translates west. On the eastern
periphery of this low, enhanced upper level support and a weak
surface trough across the northern Gulf is leading to scattered
showers and a few storms over our waters this morning. This activity
should continue through morning and gradually spread inland from the
southeast. By the afternoon period daytime heating and abundant low
level moisture will lead to scattered to widespread showers and
storms later in the day. Expect this activity to push inland through
the afternoon with the greatest chances for rain across the FL
Panhandle and southeast Alabama today.

By tonight attention turns to Fred as the outer rain bands and
impacts begin to move into our marine zones in the evening, and then
into our FL coastal zones/counties by early Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

The greatest impacts from Fred on our CWA will be during this short
term period as it is forecast to move northward and make landfall
over or just west of our westernmost panhandle zones late Monday or
Monday night. While the exact track and forecast intensity is still
uncertain, we are confident that areas mainly along and east of the
landfall point can expect widespread rains, heavy at times, with the
potential for flash flooding. WPC has most of the local Tri-state
region highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.
Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 4-8 inches in the
eastern Florida Panhandle with locally higher amounts and 3-5
inches are expected with locally higher amounts across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia. A Flash Flood Watch is currently in
effect for those areas through Tuesday afternoon. In addition to
the heavy rain threat and potential tropical storm force winds,
there will also be a threat for isolated tornadoes mainly Monday
and Monday night. Fred will lift further away to our north on
Tuesday but deep tropical moisture will continue to be pulled
northward from the gulf to keep above seasonal rain chances in the
forecast. Temperatures should be well below seasonal levels
Monday with highs only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s due to
the extensive low level cloudiness and widespread rains. With some
breaks in the cloud cover between bands of convection on Tuesday,
highs should reach the mid to upper 80s most areas. Lows Monday
night will be in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The remnants of Fred will have moved well to the north of the local
area by Tuesday night but time-height cross sections show deep layer
moisture remaining at least through Wednesday. A drier airmass
filters into the mid and upper levels by the end of the work week
through the weekend with a return to a more typical summertime
pattern of sea-breeze driven convection. One caveat is that we
will be watching Tropical Storm Grace closely as it is forecast
to enter the southeast gulf on Thursday and will be tracking to
the northwest. Strong ridging is forecast to build to the north of
this system which should keep Grace moving more westward than
north and well to the south of our area. However, since this is
still several days away, it will need to be monitored closely.
Temperatures will be more seasonal in the upper 80s warming to the
mid 90s with Lows in the mid 70s.

.MARINE...

The remnants of Fred were just west of the Florida Straits this
morning and is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm again
later today. This will result in hazardous boating conditions
tonight through Monday evening and a small craft advisory has been
issued. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for a portion
of the marine area shortly. There will be a slow improvement in
conditions heading towards mid-week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

With Fred expected to impact the area beginning later Sunday into
Monday fire weather concerns are low through the period.

.HYDROLOGY...

Flood Warnings continue for the following rivers: Steinhatchee
(US- 19) and Suwannee - Rock Bluff/Manatee Springs. Branford bares
watching over the next couple days as forecasts show borderline
minor flood stage by Tuesday morning. Additional rises are
possible from tropical rains.

The main hydro concerns through early this week are from Fred.
Rainfall amounts for the eastern panhandle are expected to range
from 4-8" (up to 12" possible) mainly over the Florida Panhandle
coast. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are expected across
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. A Flash Flood watch is in
effect for those areas through Tuesday afternoon. These values
are track dependent and subject to change.

A wet pattern appears to stay in place after Fred's departure,
with above-average rain chances at least through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  74  79  73  88 /  70  50  80  70  80
Panama City   89  75  81  75  87 /  80  70  90  90  80
Dothan        88  73  79  71  85 /  80  30  70  70  80
Albany        90  73  80  72  85 /  60  30  70  50  80
Valdosta      89  74  84  72  86 /  50  30  70  40  80
Cross City    89  75  85  73  87 /  60  40  80  50  80
Apalachicola  86  77  81  77  86 /  90  80  90  80  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Coffee-Dale-Geneva.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Barry

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>