Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
355 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

Typical summer weather will continue, with the daily rhythm of
showers and thunderstorms.

The subtropical surface ridge axis will extend inland from the
Atlantic across the Florida Panhandle, with weak east to southeast
steering flow. PW values in the 1.8-2 inch range will provide
plenty of moisture for deep moist convection. Bulk shear values of
10 knots or less will mainly support single-cell pulse storms with
gusty downdraft winds.

Currently, there is a cluster of storms over the Apalachicola
National Forest, and another cluster centered up near Columbus,
Georgia. The area between these two clusters should fill in with
storms over the next few hours, drifting west across southeast
Alabama early this evening. Later this evening, the Atlantic
seabreeze may bring a round of storms past the I-75 corridor,
before dissipation occurs during the early overnight hours.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

After a status quo Friday, our attention will turn to the effects
of the tropical system that is forecast to arrive near Florida or
over the eastern Gulf this weekend. Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
was located over the far northeast Caribbean Sea this afternoon
and is forecast to become a tropical storm late today or tonight.
An abundance of guidance brings the storm to the eastern Gulf this
weekend, and the official NHC forecast track cone encompasses
nearly our entire stretch of Panhandle and Big Bend coast. There
are lots of questions about what kind of shape the system will be
in. One of the factors will be if the storm has an over-water
track through the Straits of Florida, or whether it must first
traverse some of the FL Peninsula before arriving in the Gulf.
Obviously, details will come into focus over the next few days.
For now, the message is simply one of preparedness. The period of
highest impact appears to be around Sunday and/or Monday.
Regardless of strength, a main concern will be with rainfall
potential, especially in light of the flooding that is still
ongoing over the SE Big Bend after heavy rain last week.

By Tuesday, the question will be how quickly the system exits.
There is a mixed signal in guidance, with some lifting the system
out, while some pieces of guidance notably hang the storm up over
the Southeast U.S.. That would have an impact on flood potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Afternoon thunderstorms are currently observed in the vicinity of
TLH, and thunderstorms will fill in over the next few hours near
ECP, DHN, and ABY. Meanwhile, VLD may have to wait for arrival of
the Atlantic seabreeze around or after sunset to see thunder.

&&

.MARINE...

The main concern for the rest of this week will
continue to be erratic and gusty winds near afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Low dispersion values are forecast over
inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to weak
trasnsport winds. Otherwise, a seasonably moist and unstable air
mass will persist, with afternoon seabreezes near the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The main concern for the rest of this week will
continue to be erratic and gusty winds near afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Low dispersion values are forecast over
inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to weak
transport winds. Otherwise, a seasonably moist and unstable air
mass will persist, with afternoon seabreezes near the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Steinhatchee River near Cross City has been slowly receding
since early Sunday but remains in moderate flood. This river is a
slow responder, so it will likely take the entirety of this week
to finally drop below flood stage.

On the Lower Suwanee River, river levels will rise for the rest
of this week as large quantities of water route down from the
Withlacoochee, Upper Suwanee, and the Santa Fe Rivers. Rock Bluff
is expected to rise through flood stage this afternoon, and a
Flood Warning is in effect there. Points near Branford and Bell
are also likely to reach flood later this week, and Wilcox bears
watching.

Otherwise, slow movement of scattered afternoon thunderstorms means
there will be small pockets for each of the next few days with
heavy rain. This could bring small areas of localized runoff
issues, particularly over our Florida counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  93  74  94  74 /  30  60  20  50  20
Panama City   76  91  76  91  76 /  30  50  20  40  20
Dothan        73  93  74  92  73 /  50  50  20  50  20
Albany        74  94  75  95  75 /  20  50  10  40  10
Valdosta      73  93  74  93  73 /  30  40  20  30  10
Cross City    74  91  74  92  73 /  40  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  77  88  77  89  77 /  20  50  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
717 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYO                    30.05N 83.18W
08/10/2021                   LAFAYETTE          FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN MAYO.

&&

TB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ALZ069-102345-
Houston AL-
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Houston
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ashford, or 11 miles northeast of Cottonwood, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood, Dothan, Kinsey, Ashford, Cowarts, Webb, Columbia, Avon,
Madrid, Gordon, Memphis, Pansey, Sigma, Pearce, Enon, Lovetown,
Wilson Mill, Barber, Olympia Spa Resort and Keytons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8512 3111 8510 3104 8541 3129 8544
      3129 8542 3131 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 084DEG 12KT 3120 8520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ158-110015-
Thomas GA-
745 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Thomas
County through 815 PM EDT...

At 744 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boston, or 9 miles west of Quitman, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Boston, Barwick, Everett, Eason and Oaklawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8375 3067 8393 3078 8397 3090 8375
      3089 8374 3074 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 038DEG 13KT 3079 8372

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

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