Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

An upper level trough will amplify and broaden across the southeast
CONUS with accompanying deep-layer moisture dropping into our CWA on
Monday. The deepest moisture and best upper level support will
generally be north of a line from coastal Walton County eastward to
near Valdosta. WPC has highlighted this region with a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall for Monday with the concern once again being
slow moving storms with high rainfall rates possibly resulting in
localized flash flooding. PoPs for Monday will justifiably be high
ranging from 90% for our Al and GA zones and 60-80% across our
Florida zones. Lows tonight in the lower 70s with highs Monday in
the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

The aforementioned trough remains established across our area
through the short-term while an attendant frontal boundary parks
itself north of us. This synoptic pattern is supportive for
scattered to numerous showers/storms to continue flourishing,
without being solely dependent on diurnal forcing. Therefore, rain
chances remain high through the evening and overnight hours;
particularly west and northwest of the Big Bend near the front.
Widespread convective coverage is expected during peak heating
hours on Tuesday, posing a threat for heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty to strong winds.

The airmass will stay very moist under Precipitable Water values in
excess of 2" from deep-layer southwest flow. As such, the Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall spills into the short-term period for
locations northwest from a line extending from Valdosta to Panama
City. Isolated flooding is the primary concern, especially for spots
that experience slow-moving and/or training cells. Low-lying and
poor-drainage areas are also vulnerable, including places with
saturated grounds from previous rainfall. The precipitation and
cloud cover is going to keep most high temperatures below 90, except
perhaps in the southeast Big Bend where rain chances are relatively
lower. Low temperatures are in the low-mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The front to our north washes out as its parent trough de-amplifies,
which paves the way for the subtropical ridge to build back over the
region on Wednesday. This pattern shift should result in a return to
more typical summertime weather, consisting of diurnal convection
and rebounding high temperatures in the low 90s to close out the
work week. By next weekend, a broad trough attempts to nose down the
eastern seaboard, which could bring more unsettled weather, but is a
bit too soon to say with confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may briefly impact each terminal
through early evening with MVFR/IFR conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be more numerous on Monday but not
until after 18z. MVFR cigs expected by daybreak Monday at DHN.
Otherwise, brief periods of MVFR/IFR at the remaining terminals
around daybreak due to patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds of 15 knots or less prevail through the Thursday,
before switching out of the west heading into the weekend.
Generally favorable boating conditions, with 1 to 2 foot seas are
expected over the next several days outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With increasing rainfall chances and humidity through the next
several days fire weather concerns will be low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in place for the northwest
two-thirds of the forecast area in the Day 1 & 2 Outlook from WPC
(Valid from 12Z Monday to 12Z Wednesday). The primary concern is
localized flooding. Current 7-Day QPF amounts are widespread 1-2
inches, isolated 3"+, the majority of which likely falls through
Tuesday. Several rivers remain in action stage, but are cresting or
falling (except Ochlockonee River - Havana). Ochlockonee River -
Concord and Choctawhatchee - Caryville are forecast to enter action
stage later this week, but this appears to be short-lived.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  89  74  88  74 /  20  80  50  80  30
Panama City   77  86  76  86  77 /  20  70  60  90  50
Dothan        71  86  72  85  72 /  30  90  60  90  40
Albany        73  89  73  87  73 /  40  90  60  90  30
Valdosta      71  89  73  89  73 /  30  90  30  90  20
Cross City    74  88  75  90  75 /  20  60  40  60  30
Apalachicola  76  85  77  85  77 /  20  60  60  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...IG3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
644 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE TOM BROWN PARK    30.44N 84.20W
07/18/2021  M3.09 INCH       LEON               FL   PUBLIC

            3.09 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN 1.5 HOURS
            FROM 4:30 PM TO 6:00 PM FROM A RETIRED NWS
            EMPLOYEE IN THE PINEY Z COMMUNITY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ146-147-159-182345-
Brooks GA-Colquitt GA-Cook GA-
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COOK...NORTHWESTERN
BROOKS AND CENTRAL COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pavo, or 9 miles south of Moultrie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moultrie, Omega, Norman Park, Pavo, Riverside, Morven, Berlin,
Barwick, Ellenton, Reed Bingham State Park, Barney, Cool Spring,
Pineboro, Autreyville, Greggs, Pine Valley, Center Hill, Spence
Airport, South Moultrie and Moultrie Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 8347 3090 8348 3087 8374 3104 8374
      3104 8378 3103 8378 3103 8379 3104 8380
      3104 8388 3111 8394 3133 8362 3133 8358
      3111 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 222DEG 21KT 3104 8377

42-DVD

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