Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Mainly VFR conds prevail thru the TAF outside of storms, for which
there is a mention of thunder at all terminals this afternoon,
(except ECP). As of 2pm ET, convection is focusing east and SE of
TLH, where sudden wind gusts from outflow boundaries are possible
over the next couple hrs. Activity should diminish after sunset,
with a PROB30 for -TSRA at ECP from 15-18Z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1122 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge, and associated surface high pressure, will
remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight with light
south and southeasterly flow anticipated at the surface. Drier mid-
level air will rotate in from the east this afternoon with shower
and thunderstorms being a little more isolated this afternoon,
especially across our eastern zones. Further to the west across the
Panhandle and AL, an upper level trough approaching from the west,
along with better deep-layer moisture, will allow better chances for
rain across these areas. With rain chances a little lower this
afternoon region wide, expect warmer temperatures in the low to mid
90s (highest across our eastern zones where rain chances are lower).

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Subtropical ridge and drier air with PWATs 1.5-1.6" will be in
place across the Florida Big Bend Sunday with our counties north
of the Big Bend becoming increasingly under the influence of an
upper trough digging slowly southward. PWATs in southeast Alabama
Sunday will be closer to 2" and this gradient was used for rain
chance probabilities for Sunday. Chances are highest in the north
and lowest in the south. That trough edges southward Monday with
the entire area under its influence and greater column moisture is
expected with higher than normal rain chances and better chances
favoring our Alabama and Georgia counties. Highs are expected in
the low/mid 90s Sunday but the increase in storms and clouds highs
on Monday will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat
indices will range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

An unsettled and wetter pattern will set up through much of the
long term period. The upper trough elongates with an upper low
developing across the southern Plains and retrograding towards the
southern Rockies. A weak cold front will slide south to northern
MS/AL/GA while the subtropical ridge stretches over the central
Gulf of Mexico. The will allow a fairly deep column of southwest
to west flow across the southeast CONUS and a good channel of
mid/high level moisture in addition to the low level flow from the
Gulf of Mexico. Generally, expect higher than normal rain chances
each day with scattered to numerous coverage over land during the
diurnal period and convection developing over the marine waters at
night.

.MARINE...

Generally light to moderate southeast to south winds will
continue this weekend switching to a southwest to west wind
beginning next week as high pressure shifts south into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will be low in the absence of
thunderstorms but winds and seas will locally increase in and
around storms which are expected to increase in coverage next week
as well.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will be low today with light winds and
elevated humidity levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

Several rivers are falling through action stage (Choctawhatchee,
Ochlocknee, Aucilla) with the Suwanee expected to remain in action
stage through the upcoming week.

Rain chances won't be quite as high this weekend but a wetter
pattern is in store for the upcoming work week. Generally 1-1.5"
of rainfall is expected over the next week with the bulk of that
occurring next week. Localized nuisance flooding could occur in
poor drainage areas underneath slow moving storms. Widespread
flash flooding is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  93  73  91  73 /  20  60  10  70  40
Panama City   75  88  76  87  76 /  10  40  10  60  40
Dothan        72  90  72  87  72 /  10  60  30  80  50
Albany        74  93  74  91  72 /  10  60  30  80  50
Valdosta      73  93  72  91  72 /  30  60  20  70  30
Cross City    74  92  74  89  74 /  20  50  10  50  20
Apalachicola  75  88  76  86  76 /  20  30  10  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
103 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

FLZ018-028-128-171745-
Inland Taylor FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
103 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles west of Perry, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goose Pasture, Iddo, Eridu and Cabbage Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 8362 3013 8394 3017 8396 3018 8395
      3019 8396 3027 8400 3035 8380 3032 8379
      3032 8381 3031 8382 3030 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 244DEG 6KT 3021 8388

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

FLZ028-128-171815-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Perry, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Scanlon, Econfina, Perry-Foley Airport and Hampton Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 8370 3013 8392 3016 8358 3009 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 251DEG 7KT 3008 8365

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

FLZ017-018-171815-
Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Woodville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Apalachee Regional Park, Cody, Chaires, Chaires
Crossroads, Wacissa Springs, Natural Bridge and Capitola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 8416 3041 8422 3049 8404 3029 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 221DEG 10KT 3036 8413

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

FLZ017-018-027-171900-
Inland Jefferson FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodville. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Wakulla, Newport, Cody, Fanlew, Wacissa Springs and
Natural Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 8428 3031 8420 3038 8400 3022 8395
      3020 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 247DEG 2KT 3030 8411

IG3