Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1037 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.UPDATE...

A moist environment is in place today with the 12z KTAE sounding
showing a preciptable water value of 1.9 inches. Expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area today
as mentioned in the previous discussion. A few stronger storms
cannot be ruled out as an upper low east of the area drifts westward
with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures. As such, the SPC has
introduced a marginal risk of severe weather across the area today
with gusty winds the main threat and perhaps some hail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [634 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A quasi-stationary upper level trough centered across the central
Mississippi valley is expected to remain in place as a large omega
block upstream across the western conus, and a Bermuda upper level
ridge work together to keep the large scale flow pattern
predominantly in place over the next day or so. At the surface, a
Bermuda high pressure centered over the Atlantic is imposing a
predominantly southerly to southeasterly flow across the region.
Continued moisture advection into the region is leading to rich deep
moisture with PW values between 1.7-1.9 inches for today, which will
support scattered coverage of afternoon storms.  The deep moisture
in conjunction with the mid level convergence occurring over our
region from the aforementioned trough and ridge will allow for
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
entire day today.  High temperatures will generally remain in the
upper 80s, with portions of SW Georgia reaching the low 90s.  Lows
overnight are expected to drop into the low 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Surface ridging over the Atlantic will slide west through the short
term with the region generally in southeasterly flow. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day in the short term, although
activity may last a little later with convection pushing in from the
east. In addition, an increase in PW values (2+) inches will help to
allow for higher PoPs on Wednesday. Expect highs around 90 and lows
in the 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

With a weak disturbance still over the eastern Gulf, high PoPs will
persist into Thursday with the better chances across the western
portion of the CWA where PW values remain 2+ inches. After this, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to decrease over
the weekend with slighter "drier" weather (in terms of the PoPs)
than we have observed recently. Highs around 90 late in the week
will increase to the lower 90s for the weekend. Lows will remain
in the low to mid 70s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions are currently being observed at all TAF sites this
morning. This trend is expected to remain through the remainder of
the morning hours.  Convection is expected to start early
today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially
impacting all terminals, which can briefly bring MVFR to LIFR
conditions. VFR conditions are expected outside of shower and
thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions are currently expected
through the overnight hours tonight into tomorrow.

.MARINE...

An active pattern will persist over the next few days with even
higher chances on Wednesday as a result of a disturbance moving
across the region. Southeast to east winds will persist through
the week with wave heights of 1 to 2 feet and up to 3 feet
offshore.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected once again today.
Minimum RH values are expected to be in the 50-60 percent range
today and tomorrow.  Dispersions are expected to be low today for
all Florida zones. Despite low dispersions, there are currently no
fire weather concerns at this time.

.HYDROLOGY...

The Fenholloway River at Foley and Steinhatchee both continue in
minor flood stage this morning but are on a downward trend. The
Suwannee River at Rock Bluff and Manatee Springs continue to rise
and may reach minor flood stage late this week. Otherwise, a few
additional rivers remain in action stage. While we are in a more
active pattern, widespread rainfall amounts will be around 0.5-1.0
inch. These widespread values are not anticipated to cause
additional concerns, however, isolated higher values are expected
though and these higher amounts may lead to localized minor
flooding, particularly with higher rain rates and training.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  72  91  73  90 /  70  20  60  20  60
Panama City   86  74  88  74  88 /  60  20  50  20  50
Dothan        88  70  89  70  89 /  70  30  60  20  50
Albany        91  72  92  73  92 /  60  30  60  20  50
Valdosta      90  70  92  72  90 /  70  30  50  20  60
Cross City    90  72  92  73  90 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  86  76  86 /  70  20  40  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
930 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

FLZ027-115-127-121415-
Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
930 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAKULLA AND NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 930 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Crawfordville, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, St. Marks, Sopchoppy, Alligator Point, Shadeville,
Saint Teresa, Bald Point, Hyde Park, Panacea-Wakulla Airport, Arran,
Tully, Plum Orchard, Panacea, Shell Point, Port Leon, Medart, Wakulla
Beach, Buckhorn, Spring Creek and Liveoak Island.

LAT...LON 2988 8447 3023 8448 3017 8411 3000 8420
      2999 8426 2985 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 204DEG 6KT 3003 8435

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ENE PANACEA-WAKULLA A 30.01N 84.34W
07/12/2021  M53 MPH          GMZ730             FL   MESONET

            53 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION XAPA
            APALACHEE BAY - PANACEA CHANNEL.

0935 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ENE PANACEA-WAKULLA A 30.01N 84.34W
07/12/2021  M44 MPH          GMZ730             FL   MESONET

            44 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION XAPA
            APALACHEE BAY - PANACEA CHANNEL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1104 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

FLZ019-121545-
Madison FL-
1104 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 1145
AM EDT...

At 1104 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Madison, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Greenville, Lovett, Moseley Hall, Hopewell, Cherry Lake,
Hamburg, Hanson and Pinetta.

LAT...LON 3031 8347 3030 8347 3030 8356 3042 8374
      3043 8372 3045 8373 3055 8367 3055 8364
      3058 8362 3058 8360 3064 8360 3064 8361
      3065 8360 3064 8334 3063 8328 3062 8327
      3060 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1504Z 213DEG 13KT 3045 8358

42-DVD