Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
212 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

The current broad upper level vorticity maxima across the Gulf of
Mexico is expected to remain somewhat quasi-stationary through the
remainder of Wednesday, with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms likely to continue through the near term. A strong
Bermuda surface high pressure system is contributing to a rather
deep low level moisture field across the region that will aid in the
development of these storms through the afternoon and evening hours.
Most thunderstorm activity will likely be diurnal in nature, and
should dissipate shortly after or just before sunset. Given the
conducive environment for pop up thunderstorms, PoPs tomorrow are
rather high (50% or higher) for much of the region.  Lows tonight
will generally be in the low 70s across the region, with highs
topping out at around the upper 80s to low 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday]...

The low to mid-level flow pattern continues to transition from
easterly on Wednesday to southerly on Thursday. This sets the
stage for widespread convection on Thursday that will gradually
propagate northward along sea-breeze/outflow boundaries. Given
the anomalously moist air mass in place, and in collaboration
with surrounding PoPs will range from 50 to 70 pct, which is
above climatology.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The main concerns for impactful weather will be over the 4th of
July Weekend into early next week, with the potential for heavy
rainfall, isolated severe weather, and an increasing rip current
threat for all of the gulf beaches.

On Friday, deep layer southwest flow is modeled to take hold, as
a low closing off in the Ohio Valley sends a "cold" front into the
Southeast US. While this is not expected to change our air mass
notably, as it stalls/dissipates near the region, it'll maintain
chances for showers and thunderstorms well above climo. PoPs are
generally forecast 60-80 pct each day through Monday, tapering
down some by Tuesday.

Given the approach of the front and anomalously moist air mass,
heavy rainfall is a concern beginning Saturday and continuing
through at least Monday. Instability remains questionable given
considerable cloud cover, but the winds aloft are unseasonably
robust, so a marginal severe weather threat is possible. Some
minor nuisance flooding is also possible (See Hydrology section).

With a persistent, at times brisk southwest flow along the coast,
surf heights will increase, enhancing the rip current threat
beginning Friday, with increasing confidence for a high risk
during the Fourth of July weekend. We will continue to fine tune
the forecast as we approach the major holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions should remain through the rest of the day, with
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions during afternoon thunderstorms that
may move over the terminal. During the late overnight hours, MVFR to
LIFR Cigs and Vsbys are expected to develop across the VLD and ABY
terminals. These conditions should quickly erode by the early
morning hours and become VFR through the remainder of the afternoon
on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds will veer to southerly on Thursday and southwesterly
on Friday, around 15 to 20 knots at times through the period. This
will keep seas elevated, ranging from 1 to 3 feet in Apalachee Bay
and 2 to 4 feet elsewhere. The roughest conditions, which will be
of concern to small craft are expected to occur Friday Night into
the Fourth of July weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances through
the period, highest on Saturday and Sunday with the approach of a
cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than low dispersions tomorrow, there are currently no fire
weather concerns at this time, as a rather moist air mass is still
in place across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Sea-breeze convection will continue to augment precipitation
until the approach of a "cold" front this weekend into early next
week. Deterministic precipitation totals over the next seven days
are forecast to range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches outside of Southwest
Georgia, where amounts around 1 to 1.5 inches are forecast. With
the approach of the front, there continues to be upside potential
to the precip amounts, with isolated values around 4 to 5 inches
possible. At this time, the main concern is nuisance flooding,
given the broader time frame of accumulation. On the river front,
the Choctawhatchee at Bruce remains in action and is forecast to
drop below this stage on Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  72  84  72  84 /  60  40  60  20  60
Panama City   87  74  83  74  84 /  50  30  50  20  40
Dothan        89  71  85  72  85 /  50  30  60  20  60
Albany        92  73  87  73  88 /  30  30  60  20  70
Valdosta      92  71  85  72  85 /  30  30  70  20  60
Cross City    91  71  85  72  84 /  70  50  70  30  50
Apalachicola  85  75  81  75  82 /  50  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
535 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ENE ALLIGATOR POINT   29.92N 84.34W
06/29/2021  M39 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            WUNDERGROUND SITE KFLALLIG2 MEASURED A GUST
            TO 39 MPH.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
539 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

GAZ127>131-292245-
Tift GA-Worth GA-Irwin GA-Turner GA-Ben Hill GA-
539 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN IRWIN...TURNER...TIFT...
BEN HILL AND WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Fitzgerald to near Omega.
Movement was northwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Sylvester, Tifton, Ashburn, Omega, Poulan, Ty Ty, Mystic,
Unionville, Phillipsburg, Worth, Terrell, Sycamore, Sumner, Warwick,
Rebecca, Scooterville, Amboy, Sylvester Airport and Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8313 3182 8311 3181 8309 3179 8308
      3133 8360 3133 8368 3168 8402 3171 8403
      3176 8399 3180 8401 3180 8398 3185 8395
      3184 8386 3182 8385 3183 8384 3181 8383
      3180 8378 3180 8361 3185 8361 3185 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 146DEG 26KT 3180 8318 3140 8362

42-DVD

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