Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

A weak upper level low centered near the Florida Big Bend will drift
slowly westward during this period and be centered near Mobile by
tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, TD 4 will make landfall along the
South Carolina coast this evening, possibly as TS Danny. This system
is small and will have little impact on our forecast area, except
for isolated to scattered gusty showers across our northern counties
in Georgia overnight. We will be in a more favorable scenario for
convection tomorrow being on the back side of the retreating upper
low. This should enhance forcing for ascent while the 1000-700 mb
mean vector wind veers to southeasterly. PoPs for tomorrow were
generally a blend of the NBM and ECAM.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

The official NHC forecast takes Tropical Depression 4 into the
Tennessee Valley and dissipates it Tuesday evening. In its wake,
the region will be within a moderate easterly low to mid-level
flow. With a weak pressure gradient in place, expect the typical
sea-breeze convection to get underway on Wednesday. Adjusted
PoPs away from NBM and closer to what we would expect given the
flow regime, up to 60 pct from the Southeast FL Big Bend west
along I-10 into Southeast Alabama, given Precipitable Water
above climo. There is the potential for a couple wind gusts of
40+ mph w/storms on Wednesday given enhanced downdraft potential.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The pattern transitions on Thursday to a moderate to strong low
to mid-level southwest flow, as a low closing off in the Ohio
Valley sends a "cold" front into the Southeast US. While this
is not expected to change our air mass notably (most likely
dissipating as it approaches the area), it will increase the
chances for showers and thunderstorms to above climo. PoPs are
generally forecast 50-70 pct each day through early next week.

The main concerns this weekend into early next week will be
the potential for heavy rainfall, isolated severe weather, and
an increasing rip current threat for all of the gulf beaches.

Given the approach of the front and anomalously moist air mass,
heavy rainfall is a concern beginning Saturday and continuing
through Monday. Instability is questionable given considerable
cloud cover, but the wind field aloft is modeled unseasonably
strong, so a marginal severe weather threat is possible.

As southwest winds increase along the coast, surf is expected
to build, enhancing the rip current threat as early as Friday,
with the potential for a high risk during the Fourth of July
weekend. While confidence is very low at this time range, this
will be closely monitored given the major holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period once
initial MVFR lifts. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be low
overall and probabilities were too low at most sites to warrant
mention in the TAF for now. If a thunderstorm occurs at the
terminal, MVFR conditions would be most likely. Thunderstorm
coverage will increase tomorrow afternoon, after this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds will veer to southerly on Thursday and southwesterly
on Friday, around 15 knots at times through the period. This will
keep seas elevated, ranging from 1 to 3 feet in Apalachee Bay and
2 to 4 feet elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorm chances will be
greatest on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms and typical summer humidity
levels will preclude most fire weather concerns. The lone exception
is low dispersion indices that are anticipated on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 4 will remain
northeast of the area, within the WPC Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall. Otherwise, sea-breeze convection will augment precipitation
until the approach of a "cold" front this weekend into early next
week. Deterministic precipitation totals over the next seven days
are forecast to range from 1.5 to 2 inches over Southeast AL into the
western FL Panhandle, and near the FL Big Bend coast. Elsewhere,
amounts around 1 to 1.5 inches are forecast. With the approach of
the front, there is upside potential to the precip amounts northwest
of the FL Big Bend, where isolated amounts up to 4 inches are
possible. At this time, the main concern would be nuisance flooding.
For the Rivers, the Choctawhatchee at Bruce is currently in action
stage, and forecast to drop below this on Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  90  72  88  71 /  10  50  40  40  40
Panama City   72  87  73  85  73 /  10  60  30  60  10
Dothan        69  89  71  88  70 /  10  60  30  60  10
Albany        71  92  73  91  72 /  30  40  30  30  20
Valdosta      69  92  71  89  70 /  10  40  30  50  30
Cross City    72  91  71  88  71 /  10  70  50  60  50
Apalachicola  74  85  75  83  74 /  10  50  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

FLZ017-282245-
Leon FL-
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Florida A And M, or over Tallahassee, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Florida A And M, Tallahassee Comm College, Florida State
University, Doak Campbell Stadium, Lake Bradford, Macon Community
Park, Gaither Community Center, Lake Munson, Tallahassee Memorial
Hosp, Lake Ella, Tallahassee Mall, Tallahassee Regional A/P, State
Capital Complex, Governors Square Mall, Springsax Park, Belair, Levy
Park, Indian Head Acres and Andrew.

LAT...LON 3038 8445 3045 8451 3046 8449 3046 8446
      3047 8442 3048 8440 3051 8440 3052 8439
      3055 8439 3056 8438 3057 8438 3050 8419
      3035 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 098DEG 16KT 3044 8425

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

FLZ013-026-282300-
Liberty FL-Calhoun FL-
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA AND LIBERTY COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA UNTIL 700 PM
EDT/600 PM CDT/...

At 636 PM EDT/536 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Blountstown, moving west at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blountstown, Bristol, Clarksville, Abe Springs, Hosford, Chipola,
Clio, Scotts Ferry, Kennys Mill, Estiffanulga, Kinard, Blountstown
Airport, Hugh Creek, Telogia, Red Oak, Sharpstown, Chason,
Marysville, Willis and Nettle Ridge.

LAT...LON 3057 8525 3057 8524 3042 8477 3024 8482
      3028 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 107DEG 29KT 3036 8492

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRAGG STADIUM           30.42N 84.29W
06/28/2021  M45 MPH          LEON               FL   MESONET

            THE FLORIDA A&M UNIVERSITY WEATHER STATION
            RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX   30.44N 84.28W
06/28/2021  M42 MPH          LEON               FL   MESONET

            THE BALLARD PARTNERS WEATHER STATION
            RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

&&

KO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
658 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

FLZ013-026-282330-
Liberty FL-Calhoun FL-
658 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA AND LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA UNTIL 730
PM EDT/630 PM CDT/...

At 657 PM EDT/557 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Blountstown, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blountstown, Bristol, Telogia, Clarksville, Red Oak, Ocheesee,
Selman, Abe Springs, Sharpstown, Hosford, Chipola, Henderson Mill,
Kennys Mill, Nettle Ridge, Estiffanulga, Woods, Lowry, Blountstown
Airport, Macedonia and Torreya State Park.

LAT...LON 3061 8506 3061 8501 3041 8474 3026 8491
      3040 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 130DEG 15KT 3039 8495

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

FLZ013-290000-
Calhoun FL-
634 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blountstown, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blountstown, Altha, Moose Pond, Clarksville, Red Oak, Ocheesee,
Selman, Chason, Chipola, Henderson Mill, Camps Head, Kennys Mill,
Center Lake, Willis, Nettle Ridge, Blountstown Airport, Macedonia,
Durham, White Pond and Sharpstown.

LAT...LON 3057 8538 3057 8518 3061 8517 3061 8495
      3056 8497 3052 8499 3051 8499 3036 8509
      3052 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 120DEG 11KT 3048 8511

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