Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
910 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.UPDATE...

Intermittent showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
overnight, particularly across the northern portions of the area
where it's not as worked over from today's convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [734 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...
A very active pattern for convection with the approach of a
shortwave and cold front. Some locations across the Florida
panhandle and big bend have already received 3 to 5 inches of
rain since daybreak. In addition to very heavy downpours, some of
the thunderstorms are producing gusty winds over 40 mph. While
there will be a respite at times between showers and
thunderstorms, rain chances will be elevated above seasonal levels
through the overnight hours and Tuesday. For Tuesday, SPC has our
entire CWA highlighted for a Marginal risk of severe weather.
Some of the factors coming into play are a very moist airmass (PW
> 2.0") and a low-level jet of around 30 kts. However, weak
instability (~ 500-1000 J/kg) will be the limiting factor for a
greater than marginal threat. Heavy downpours on top of recent
rains over this past weekend and today will also cause concern for
potential flash flooding with some riverine flooding also
possible thereafter. See the Hydrology section at the bottom of
this discussion for all the details.

Lows tonight wilL be around 70. It will be unseasonably cool on
Tuesday due to the cloud cover with highs mainly in the lower to
middle 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...
Mean trough will remain in place along the eastern seaboard
through Wednesday night, with a decaying frontal boundary stalled
across southern Georgia and Alabama. The airmass south of the
boundary will remain very moist and supportive of high PoPs
through Wednesday night. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern,
especially across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, into far
Southern Georgia.

With plenty of clouds for the next few days, afternoon
temperatures will likely remain well below normal, with highs in
the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The upper trough will weaken by Thursday, allowing for the return
to a more typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and
temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Pretty messy pattern for the next TAF period. Intermittent showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow.
Ceilings and vis will fluctuate between VFR to MVFR/IFR during
convection. Winds could also become gusty at times.

.MARINE...
Southerly winds, up to 15 knots at times, will redevelop over the
waters this evening and continue through the middle of the week.
Showers and thunderstorms will be common over the waters through
the middle of the week, before coverage diminishes late in the
week as winds become more easterly or southeasterly.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A wet weather pattern will continue for the next several days,
limiting any fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...
Lingering tropical moisture, a decaying frontal boundary, and an
upper trough will combine to support heavy rainfall over the next
couple of days. Today's storms have dropped a wide swath of 1-2.5
inches along and south of a line from Madison to Tallahassee to
Panama City. However, there are embedded areas of 5+ inches within
the swath. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected across
the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and far Southern Georgia through
Thursday morning. However, isolated spots could see much higher
values, increasing the risk for Flash Flooding. Therefore, a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  81  71  86  71 /  70  90  40  70  20
Panama City   75  82  75  85  74 /  80  80  50  70  20
Dothan        71  80  70  84  70 /  70  90  40  70  20
Albany        72  82  71  86  71 /  70  90  40  70  20
Valdosta      71  81  69  86  69 /  60  80  30  80  30
Cross City    73  84  73  87  72 /  80  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  50  70  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM.

&&

UPDATE...Merrifield
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1059 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

ALZ068-FLZ007>009-108-220500-
Geneva AL-Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-South Walton FL-
North Walton FL-
1059 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GENEVA...WALTON AND
WESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1058 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Laurel Hill to 8 miles
southwest of Crestview to 31 miles south of Pensacola Beach. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

Winds gusts around 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa Beach, De Funiak Springs, Samson, Eglin Air Force Base,
Union, Liberty, Freeport, Paxton, Ponce De Leon, Oakwood Hills,
Cluster Springs, Villa Tasso, Blue Mountain Beach, Logan Field
Municipal A/P, Seaside, Rock Hill, Glendale, Pleasant Ridge, Knox
Hill and New Harmony.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3039 8626 3040 8623
      3042 8627 3039 8611 3044 8616 3047 8613
      3046 8619 3050 8620 3048 8622 3046 8639
      3099 8639 3100 8619 3119 8619 3120 8592
      3070 8591 3020 8602 3031 8639 3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 263DEG 23KT 3107 8664 3065 8665 2988 8724

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
103 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

FLZ007>009-108-112-220600-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-South Walton FL-
North Walton FL-
103 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BAY AND CENTRAL
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT/100 AM CDT/...

At 102 AM EDT/1202 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Niceville to 8 miles
southeast of Destin. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds gusts around 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air
Force Base, Union, Freeport, Portland, Alpine Heights, Villa Tasso,
Blue Mountain Beach, De Funiak Spring Airport, Seaside, Rock Hill,
Pleasant Ridge, Center Ridge, Gulf Pines, Bunker, Grayton Beach,
Piney Grove and Argyle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8623 3043 8626
      3043 8625 3039 8611 3047 8613 3046 8619
      3050 8620 3046 8639 3068 8639 3085 8604
      3045 8594 3040 8600 3023 8588 3039 8640
      3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 254DEG 21KT 3058 8652 3029 8641