Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
736 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region
this evening with activity expected to affect ECP in the next 15
to 30 minutes. Convection will decrease overnight with additional
activity expected again on Monday. While TSRA is possible at any
of the TAF sites tomorrow, the better chances will be at DHN and
ABY so only mentioned thunderstorms in there for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [312 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

An upper level trough will slowly move through the region over the
next 24 to 36 hours as it drift southeast. Cooler upper level temps
in association with this feature and plenty of low-level moisture
will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through
the remainder of the afternoon. The greatest chances for showers and
storms remains across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend where the best
combination of instability, low-level moisture, and convergence
along the seabreeze overlaps today. Further north, slightly drier
mid-level air and less low-level convergence behind a weak frontal
boundary will mean more isolated coverage of storms across AL/GA
this afternoon. Coverage begins to lessen around/after sunset as
daytime heating diminishes and instability lessens.

A little more dry air wraps around the upper level low into the
forecast area for Monday afternoon with northerly flow expected to
prevail. This likely means a little bit less coverage of showers and
storms for the afternoon with the main area of focus again being the
FL Panhandle and Big Bend where low level convergence is maximized.
Expecting slightly warmer temperatures in the low to mid 90s for
Monday.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday]...

As an upper level trough that has been over the region for several
days finally pushes well south of the region into the Florida
Peninsula, an upper level trough is expected to eject equatorward
into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. This could lead to a diffluent
pattern aloft across the Big Bend region of Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday, which could lead to an enhancement of thunderstorm
activity across this region on both days. Generally Tuesday and
Wednesday will be warm, with highs surging into the low to mid 90s
across the region. Tuesday will fell the warmest with maximum
apparent temperatures reaching the highest levels of the summer
this far with values reaching the low 100s through the afternoon
hours. low temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the
low 70s both Monday and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

As the aforementioned upper level trough swings through the Mid-
Atlantic, and off the east coast, surface high pressure, and upper
level ridging is expected to build over the region on on Thursday
and Friday. PW values may remain high enough along the immediate
coastline that a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop along the seabreeze; however, widespread activity is not
expected for both Thursday and Friday. The introduction late week
and closer towards the weekend of an early season tropical
disturbance will play a major role in the overall weather expected
across the region starting Saturday. Most model ensemble guidance
has a tropical disturbance moving into the Texas/Louisiana region
by Friday/Saturday. As is normal with any tropical disturbance, PW
values will be extremely high, with early model output currently
forecasting values between 2-2.25 inches along the east side of
this system. At this time, it is too early to tell what impacts,
if any, we could see from this system; however, with deep tropical
moisture being advected northward into our region by the weekend,
a wet weekend and early work week next week could be on tap. At
this time, continue to monitor future forecast updates.

.MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas will be possible at times through the next
several days along with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will be especially elevated with thunderstorms over the
water, as localized increased winds and seas could lead to
dangerous boating conditions. Winds and seas could begin to pick
up late in the week and into the weekend, as a tropical disturbance
in the southwest Gulf of Mexico could lead to enhanced seas and
winds across the region later in the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no significant fire weather concerns the next few days,
but afternoon rain chances will become more isolated through the
week along with warming temperatures.

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed across
the region this afternoon, and are forecasted for the coming week
with Thursday and Friday remaining the driest of the days ahead.
while heavy downbursts could lead to localized flooding in poor
drainage areas, no impactful flooding is anticipated through the
end of the work week. The main focus will remain on the
possibility for rain chances to ramp up by the weekend and early
next work week as a tropical disturbance lists north into the Gulf
of Mexico by the end of the week. At this time, it is still too
soon to tell what, if any, impacts we could get from this system;
however, with elevated PW values expected, an expected wet pattern
could be in store for the region beyond the long term forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  94  73  95  72 /  50  40  10  40  20
Panama City   75  90  77  89  75 /  40  30  20  40  20
Dothan        72  93  72  94  71 /  20  50  20  30  10
Albany        72  96  74  97  72 /  20  20  10  30  10
Valdosta      71  92  72  94  71 /  50  30  10  40  20
Cross City    72  90  72  91  73 /  60  50  30  40  40
Apalachicola  75  88  76  88  75 /  40  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Bunker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MERRITTS CROSSROA 31.09N 85.46W
06/13/2021  M40 MPH          HOUSTON            AL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV619 REHOBETH MEASURED A
            GUST TO 40 MPH.

&&

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
643 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE GRACEVILLE        30.97N 85.51W
06/13/2021  M41 MPH          JACKSON            FL   PUBLIC

            A MESONET AT GRACEVILLE HIGH SCHOOL MEASURED
            A 41 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
549 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

FLZ007>011-132330-
Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-North Walton FL-Washington FL-
549 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL JACKSON...EAST
CENTRAL WALTON...HOLMES AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bonifay, moving southwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Chipley, Bonifay, De Funiak Springs, Bradford, Live Oak,
Ponce De Leon, Caryville, Wausau, Esto, Westville, Hinsons
Crossroads, Richter Crossroads, Whitehead Crossroads, Cerrogordo,
Gritney, Holmes Valley, Millers Ferry, Holland Crossroads and Smith
Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8581 3100 8571 3100 8569 3080 8540
      3044 8572 3044 8577 3070 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 041DEG 25KT 3080 8563

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
706 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

FLZ010>013-112-132330-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-
706 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN BAY...NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA UNTIL 730 PM EDT/630 PM CDT/...

At 706 PM EDT/606 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southeast of Chipley, moving southwest at 20
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alford, Betts, Orange Hill, Ridgetop, Fountain, Singer Road,
Greenhead, Gainer Spring, Gilberts Mill, Center Lake, Bennett, Round
Lake, Porter Lake, Compass Lake and Riverside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8546 3062 8525 3031 8558 3046 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 046DEG 17KT 3062 8544

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
826 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

FLZ008-108-112-140100-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-
826 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT/800 PM CDT/...

At 825 PM EDT/725 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles south of Eglin Air
Force Base to 11 miles southeast of Santa Rosa Beach to near Panama
City Beach. Movement was southwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Eglin Air Force Base, Freeport,
Inlet Beach, Portland, Villa Tasso, Port Washington, Gulf Resort
Beach, Blue Mountain Beach, Seaside, Miramar Beach, Sunnyside, Gulf
Pines, Bunker, Laird, Laguna Beach, Grayton Beach, Hollywood Beach
and Seagrove Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3039 8626 3038 8611
      3039 8611 3044 8616 3047 8613 3046 8619
      3050 8620 3046 8639 3051 8639 3059 8621
      3045 8600 3040 8600 3026 8583 3015 8593
      3022 8605 3031 8639 3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 053DEG 25KT 3049 8625 3029 8609 3021 8592

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
837 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ALZ065-140215-
Coffee AL-
837 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of New Brockton to 7 miles south
of Elba. Movement was southwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Lee, Kinston, Mixons Crossroads,
Perry Store, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Ino, Turner Crossroads, Lowry
Mill, Camp Humming Hills, Clintonville, Wise Mill, Roeton, Goodman,
Camp Alaflo Bsa, Clowers Crossroads and Basin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8605 3162 8579 3150 8579 3119 8601
      3119 8611 3118 8612 3119 8613 3119 8619
      3139 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 030DEG 7KT 3153 8589 3131 8606