Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

PWATs have decreased since this time yesterday (1.5 inches this
morning vs 1.87 inches yesterday) so drier air is moving into the
region and area cross sections show a pronounced dry layer between
500-300mb. Below that there is still some moisture to work with so
there are some low chances Thursday afternoon over the eastern
sections associated with the seabreeze and in southeast
Alabama/adjacent southwest Georgia associated with a shortwave
trough. Outside of immediate relief from rain, it will be toasty
with highs in the low to mid 90s and 'feels-like' temperatures in
the upper 90s everywhere and near 100 degrees south of I-10.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

Ridging breaks down at the beginning of the short term and gets
replaced by a developing trough across the eastern US. Some
associated upper impulses moving within the mean flow aloft brush
the southeast region, which may provide enough forcing to fire off a
few showers and storms mainly along the northern portions of the
forecast area on Friday. However, rain chances are only about 30% or
less, suggesting that any convection that develops is likely to be
isolated in nature. Overall, expect a very warm period characterized
by high temperatures in the low 90s (heat indices approaching 100),
and lows in the low-mid 70s. Patchy fog is also possible in the
early-morning hours in the Tri-state area.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Our area is forecast to be narrowly wedged between a positively
tilted trough across the eastern seaboard and a broad ridge anchored
over the southern Plains/Desert SW beginning this weekend. This
synoptic set-up should make for wet/unsettled weather during much of
the long term. One feature to watch for on the front end of this
period is an upper disturbance that dives down into the lower MS/TN
Valley along the northwest flow between the aforementioned trough
and ridge. Models are hinting that a Mesoscale Convective System
could form in response and bring active weather our way in the form
of widespread showers and thunderstorms, with possible severe and/or
flood implications. Troughing is poised to remain in place for most
of next week, so rain chances stay elevated through Wednesday.

Aside from the expected precipitation, warm/muggy conditions prevail
as high temperatures peak in the low 90s, while lows bottom out in
the low 70s. The increased humidity also likely contributes to some
locations reaching or exceeding 100-degree heat indices Saturday-
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon associated with
the seabreeze boundary from TLH-VLD with the other TAF sites
remaining dry. Conds will be VFR outside of any convection.
Overnight, some patchy fog will develop in southeast Alabama and
the Florida panhandle, including DHN and ECP which will persist
into mid morning Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly winds generally at 15 knots or less and seas up to 3 ft
prevail through late Friday. Cautionary boating conditions arrive
this weekend, along with chances for showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain on the low side (30% or less) through Friday,
with any showers and storms developing in isolated locations. The
main fire concerns are morning patchy fog and high afternoon
dispersions Thursday and Friday across the Tri-state area. A wet
pattern returns this weekend and appears to spill over into next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

After experiencing heavy rainfall in some locations the past couple
of days, the next two look to be mostly dry, with rain chances on
the low-side through Friday. A wet pattern returns this weekend when
a greater coverage of showers and storms are expected. The 7-Day QPF
totals by WPC are minimum 1" areawide (isolated 2"+). The Big Bend
and Forgotten Coast appear to be targets for the heaviest amounts,
but it is too soon to say with confidence. All area rivers and
streams are in good shape. There are no flood concerns at this time,
but thinking may change going forward.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  94  71  94  74 /  20  10   0  10  20
Panama City   74  87  75  87  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
Dothan        71  92  72  91  73 /  10  20  10  30  30
Albany        72  94  73  93  74 /  20  10  10  30  30
Valdosta      73  94  71  94  73 /  20  20   0  10  20
Cross City    72  92  72  92  74 /  20  20   0  10  10
Apalachicola  74  86  75  86  76 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
619 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

FLZ016-017-GAZ157-092245-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-
619 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GADSDEN...NORTH
CENTRAL LEON AND SOUTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Havana, moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Havana, Freemont, Macon Community Park, Moncrief, Lake
Iamonia, Concord, Scotland, Orchard Pond, Maclay State Gardens, Rocky
Hill, Gibson, Killearn Lakes, Iamonia, Tallahassee Coml Airport,
Killearn Estates, Lake Jackson, Tallahassee Mall, Bradfordville and
Beachton.

LAT...LON 3046 8442 3062 8447 3066 8436 3075 8429
      3081 8417 3075 8412 3070 8409 3064 8421
      3048 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 257DEG 6KT 3055 8436

AH