Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

The southeast CONUS will transition from the influence of an upper
low and deeper moisture to that of a low and mid level high and
lower PWATs and greater subsidence. A good amount of convection is
ongoing currently and will decrease in coverage this evening. The
high takes root tonight and Wednesday with rain chances markedly
lower with the better chances on the Big Bend seabreeze and our
eastern counties associated with any east coast seabreeze. Most
locations will be dry tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s. Heat
indices are creeping up with mid/upper 90s everywhere and perhaps
feels-like temperatures around 100 in a few spots south of I-10.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Subtropical ridging temporarily builds back over the region in
response to the lifting cutoff low into the OH Valley late this
week. This pattern shift should result in a brief period of drier
conditions before troughing becomes re-established across the
eastern US heading into the weekend. Only a slight chance of showers
and storms are forecast on Thursday, mainly along the I-75 corridor.
Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon, with highs in the low 90s, but
heat indices up to 96 because of the humidity. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Wet and unsettled weather looks to arrive this weekend as troughing
continues to build over the southeast, with associated impulses
providing additional support for convection. An attendant surface
trough and/or backdoor front appears to brush the region, which
should serve as a focus for low-level convergence. As a result, rain
chances appreciably return areawide on Saturday and remain elevated
through Sunday. The axis of precipitation then shifts east towards
the coast, east Big Bend, and Suwannee Valley early next week as an
upper-level disturbance develops within the mean trough and slowly
dances offshore from GA/SC. Overall, shower/storm activity will be
diurnally driven, with the greatest coverage during peak heating
hours, then diminishing after sunset.

High temperatures in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s are
expected throughout the period. The former may be a couple degrees
cooler from persistent rainfall/cloud cover. Aside from convection,
watch out for heat indices approaching 100 in some spots Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

A good amount of convection is anticipated today through early
this evening. Have VCTS mention at all TAF sites this afternoon.
Convection should wane after 00Z. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR
underneath heavier convection. Some patchy fog could occur
overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Favorable boating conditions persist through the week outside of any
thunderstorms that may develop. Cautionary winds and seas are
expected this weekend, with an increase in rain chances at the end
of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon, with
occasional outflow boundaries producing new cells and sudden wind
shifts. Convection should wane after sunset. Chances for
precipitation decrease through the end of the work week. For
Wednesday, low dispersions are expected in the I-75 corridor into
the early afternoon hours, followed by high dispersions in the
Wiregrass Region. Much of the Tri-state area is forecast to see high
dispersions on Thursday. Patchy fog is also possible early tomorrow
morning, but will likely dissipate shortly after sunrise.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and storms have provided beneficial rainfall for
much of our area over the past few days. We remain under a marginal
risk (level 1/5) for excessive rainfall until tomorrow morning,
mainly away from the coast thanks to a moist airmass in place. Aside
from isolated spots in Jackson/Geneva Co. that received 3-5"
yesterday and portions of Madison/Taylor Co. getting about 3-4" this
afternoon, there are no major flood concerns. However, localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out from strong and/or slow-moving
cells, particularly in the aforementioned locations. All area rivers
and streams are in good shape. Drier conditions take place mid-to-
late week, before a wet/unsettled pattern arrives late this
weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  92  70  92  70 /  10  20   0  10   0
Panama City   73  87  73  88  74 /   0  10   0  10   0
Dothan        69  91  70  91  70 /  20  30   0  10   0
Albany        71  93  71  93  72 /  40  30  10  20   0
Valdosta      70  91  70  93  70 /  40  40  10  20   0
Cross City    72  91  71  92  71 /  20  30  10  20   0
Apalachicola  73  87  73  86  73 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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