Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

A broad upper level trough will be moving very slowly across the
Tennessee valley tomorrow.  With our region on the southeastern edge
of this trough, there will be enough forcing for shower and
thunderstorm activity across much of the region again tomorrow.
Similar to today, if the southerly low level flow is strong enough,
portions of the immediate coast may miss out on much needed rain
again as the seabreeze will likely push inland through the late
morning and early afternoon compared to its usual late afternoon
time frame. Given that the southerly flow might be too strong,
the thunderstorms may not have enough time to grow upscale across
extreme coastal Florida Big Bend and Panhandle zones tomorrow.
This will be beneficial; however, for our interior zones that will
likely see a third day of scattered heavy to moderate showers and
thunderstorms. Some may be able to produce gusty winds at time
through the later afternoon as updrafts/downdrafts become more
vigorous. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the region, with lows tonight dropping
into the low 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

The weakening upper low will stall over the Ohio Valley, Lower Great
Lakes region during this period with a trough extending southward
into MS/AL. The subtropical ridge axis will slip southward. Drier
air will begin to work into southern portions of the forecast area.
PoPs will be highest over our eastern counties, downstream from the
upper trough where DPVA will contribute to lift. Temperatures will
be close to normal with lows around 70 and highs in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Drier air in the ridge will reduce PoPs to below seasonal levels for
both Thursday and Friday, allowing for slightly higher temperatures
during the daytime. A few spots could reach the mid 90s. An upper
trough will sag into the area over the weekend and then extend
westward along the Gulf Coast into Monday. A cold front will
actually make it into the area before stalling and becoming diffuse.
This pattern will result in a gradual increase in PoPs each day with
an accompanying slow decrease in daytime temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Brief MVFR/IFR visibilities and CIGs are ongoing/expected throughout
the afternoon hours at all terminals as widespread showers and
thunderstorms have quickly overtaken the region. TLH may stay at VFR
conditions through the remainder of the afternoon as the seabreeze
has already moved through the region, although, a few showers over
the next hour or so can't be ruled out. The aforementioned MVFR/IFR
restrictions are expected to continue for DHN, ABY, and VLD through
the early evening hours as several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move through SW Georgia and SE
Alabama. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
overnight hours as storms fizzle out after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow today will subside by tomorrow afternoon and
then remain light through the end of the work week. The sea breeze
will be the predominant player in increasing wind speeds near the
coast each afternoon while offshore winds remain lighter. Winds will
shift to westerly Friday night and Saturday ahead of a stalling
front north of the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of low dispersions along the I-75 corridor on Wednesday,
there are no fire weather concerns at this time. With significant
low level moisture advection occurring across the region, Minimum RH
values will not be a concern.  Winds can once again be breezy
through the afternoon hours; however, once the sun sets, winds are
expected to become calm during the overnight hours. Generally
speaking, there are no concerns at this time for dangerous fire
weather conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Due to the prolonged dry spell, forecast rainfall totals over the
next 48 hours (under 2 inches) should not cause any flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  70  91  70 /  10  20  10  40  10
Panama City   74  87  72  87  73 /  20  30   0  20   0
Dothan        71  88  69  90  69 /  30  70  10  30   0
Albany        72  91  71  91  71 /  50  60  20  40  10
Valdosta      70  90  69  91  69 /  30  30  20  50  10
Cross City    71  92  71  91  70 /  20  10  10  30  10
Apalachicola  75  85  73  86  73 /  20  10   0  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Wool

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

GAZ129-131-147-148-072245-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Irwin GA-Cook GA-
606 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN COOK...SOUTHWESTERN IRWIN...NORTHERN BERRIEN AND EASTERN
TIFT COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 605 PM EDT a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Enigma, or 8 miles northwest of Nashville moving north 15 to 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ocilla, Nashville, Tifton, Enigma, Lenox and Alapaha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 8312 3123 8351 3146 8348 3160 8340
      3158 8314 3147 8313 3147 8314 3146 8315
      3144 8314 3140 8314 3140 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 194DEG 18KT 3132 8331

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

GAZ130-131-148-072330-
Berrien GA-Irwin GA-Ben Hill GA-
653 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN IRWIN...NORTHEASTERN BERRIEN AND EASTERN BEN HILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Ambrose moving northeast at 25 to 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Irwin,
northeastern Berrien and eastern Ben Hill Counties.

LAT...LON 3166 8300 3166 8301 3164 8301 3161 8306
      3155 8306 3148 8311 3147 8314 3146 8315
      3144 8314 3140 8314 3139 8312 3137 8311
      3144 8329 3181 8312 3181 8309 3178 8303
      3178 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 230DEG 25KT 3148 8311