Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
625 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

A range of restrictions at the terminals this morning in low cigs
and fog. Expect a brief rebound prior to SHRA/TSRA moving across
the terminals this afternoon/evening. A solid deck of low clouds
will move over the terminals after 00z with a cold front. Winds
W-SW today veering N-NE behind the front tonight at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [349 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Patchy fog over portions of the area should lift around 8 AM ET.

The main concern today will be for renewed heavy showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for localized flash flooding
and isolated damaging wind gusts. A MCS over southern LA/MS
will continue east across the area today. Meanwhile, a cold
front moves slowly southward into the region. The environment
is characterized by Surface Based CAPE up to 2.5k J/kg and
Bulk Shear (0-6 km) around 35 knots. The highest instability
is near the I-10 corridor, where differential heating could
lead to additional thunderstorms/enhanced rainfall rates.
The other area of concern is further north into GA and SE AL,
where the southward moving cold front will lead to additional
thunderstorms/enhanced rainfall rates. Some of this activity
could be elevated just north of the front by the evening.
Convection could train from west to east along this front, as
it slowly propagates southward. Portions of GA and SE AL are
vulnerable to heavy rainfall after several inches on Tuesday,
and 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today over a short
period of time could lead to renewed flash flooding. This
looks to setup in a narrow corridor and should be localized.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible given steep low-
level lapse rates, and any rotating storms would be capable
of hail as well.

Quite a range in temperatures today with the front poised
to move south, from the middle to upper 70s further north
into GA and SE AL, to the mid and upper 80s in the FL Big
Bend.

Some additional overrunning precipitation is likely overnight
in the wake of the frontal passage. Thunder chances diminish
after midnight with a lack of instability and increasing CIN.
Overnight temperatures bottom out in the low-50s to low-60s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

The sagging cold front is forecast to be positioned slightly south
of the Forgotten Coast at the beginning of the period. Some
lingering convection is expected in the boundary's proximity, with
the highest PoPs (~50-55%) in the Big Bend and southwest GA early
Thurs. A slight chance of thunder was also included. Convective
activity looks to taper off from west to east as a drier and cooler
airmass filters in above a stabilizing, yet moist low-level layer
from weak troughing over the region. Model soundings highlight
this setup quite well, which suggests that cool conditions under
overcast skies prevail the remainder of the short-term. About only
a 10-12 degree difference between high and low temperatures are
expected, at upper 60s/low 70s and low 50s-low 60s, respectively.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

An upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast and gives way to a
low-amplitude ridge building in over the area this weekend. Dry
conditions take over for much of the long-term period, with low-
end rain chances (no greater than 15%) in the forecast early next
week. Global models keep bulk of the synoptic forcing for ascent
north and west of us, while under the influence of surface high
pressure shifting from the Appalachians to near Bermuda.
Persistent easterly flow should allow temperatures and moisture to
gradually rebound. Highs are expected to be in the 80s, while
lows warm from the 50s to 60s.

.MARINE...

The primary marine concern today is the potential for hazardous
boating conditions in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong. The main threats are strong gusts and
lightning. Cautionary level winds out of the northeast filter in
behind a front passing south of our waters on Thurs and are forecast
to hover around headline criteria through at least Sun despite rain-
free weather heading into the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern persists through today, but begins tapering off
tomorrow afternoon. Moist and cloudy conditions are going to
contribute to forecast mixing heights around 2000 ft or less
(outside of southeast Big Bend) on Thurs. A drier airmass then
arrives into the weekend under northeast winds. There are no fire
concerns outside of low dispersions in portions of the Tri-state
area this afternoon and patchy fog generally along and south of I-10
this morning (some of which may become locally dense).

.HYDROLOGY...

Pockets of heavy rainfall occurred on Monday with up to 3"
in portions of the western FL Panhandle, and isolated 4-6"
amounts east of Bainbridge, west of Sneads, and south of
Blountstown. There is the potential for renewed heavy rain
today as an eastward moving MCS interacts with a southward
moving cold front, especially where this activity trains
from west to east. As mentioned in the near term section,
portions of the region are vulnerable to heavy rainfall,
especially where the higher amounts fell yesterday. Even
2-3 inches of addt'l rainfall today over a short period
of time could lead to renewed flash flooding, which looks
to setup in a narrow corridor and should be localized.
Additional rainfall is possible tonight, which should be
light compared with today, followed by a dry stretch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  58  68  58  81 /  80  60  50  10   0
Panama City   82  60  70  59  78 /  40  60  40   0   0
Dothan        77  55  65  52  76 /  70  60  40   0   0
Albany        80  53  65  54  77 / 100  60  50   0   0
Valdosta      85  56  67  57  79 / 100  70  50  10   0
Cross City    89  63  73  61  80 /  10  20  40  10   0
Apalachicola  82  62  72  62  78 /  20  50  40  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOULTRIE                31.18N 83.79W
05/12/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN MOULTRIE.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE SYLVESTER          31.52N 83.83W
05/12/2021                   WORTH              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE NEAR E WELCH ST
            AND MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DR.

&&

DVD

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