Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
415 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Strong thunderstorms will be the main concern for the next 24
hours. The radar presentation of storms coming in from the west
will appear to weaken over the next few hours, but entrainment of
dry low-level air will enhance gust potential more than one might
guess with a casual glance at radar.

Mariners and beach goers will want to watch the batch of storms
that is now moving east past the mouth of the Mississippi. All
day, the hourly HRRR runs have been showing gust potential of
35-50 knots as theses weakening storms reach the Gulf waters west
of Apalachicola. Over land, gusts may not be that high, but gusts
will still overperform based on a mere glance at radar or the sky.

For Thursday, storms will develop in advance of a slow-moving cold
front that will sag south through the tri-state area. SPC has now
expanded the Marginal Risk in the convective outlook to include
all of our FL counties and the far southern tier of counties in
Georgia. There should be plenty of instability, and there will be
respectable mid-level speed shear. This should support a risk of
isolated severe gusts and hail. Tornadoes are not much of a
concern, given a lack of low-level shear and perhaps an elevated
component to the convection. Storms will develop in place over SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle early in the morning. The front will
move southeast through the day and exit Dixie County by late
afternoon or early Thu evening.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

Thursday's slow-moving cold front will drag south into the Gulf on
Thursday night and turn up stationary on Friday. Here to its
north, there will be a lull in rain chances from Thursday night
into Friday morning.

A return of southerly flow is expected on Friday night, as low
pressure starts to develop along the tail end of the front over
the western Gulf. This will start to lift the eastern Gulf portion
of the front back north as a warm front. Rain and thunder will
start to blossom again.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Warm front will lift north into the tri-state area on Saturday,
bringing the next shot of rain and thunder as a low pressure wave
ripples east past the forecast area.

In the wake of the low pressure ripple, the front will shove back
south over the Gulf and the northern FL Peninsula. Our AL/GA
counties will dry out nicely on Sunday, but rain may keep going
over the eastern Big Bend through Monday night.

The front to our south will weaken next Tuesday and Wednesday, as
upper heights rise modestly and flow becomes more unremarkably
zonal. Even the eastern Big Bend comes up with a dry forecast by
late next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Expecting fairly high-based showers to pass from west to east
across the terminals late this afternoon and this evening. Brief
thunder cannot be ruled out, but this is not in the TAFs at this
time. Winds near these showers will be erratic and gusty,
especially with a dry sub-cloud layer beneath the showers.

Overnight, southwest winds will bring low marine stratus onshore,
overspreading the terminals overnight.

A band of strong thunderstorms will move slowly southeast in the
morning.

&&

.MARINE...

The biggest threat to mariners will come in erratic and gusty
thunderstorm outflow wind gusts this evening, particularly over
the Panhandle waters west of Apalachicola. For the casual
observer, these gusts may seem like a surprise, considering the
convective cells may not visibly appear that strong to the eye or
on radar. However, the presence of dry air beneath the cloud bases
will really increase the gust factor, even from seemingly
innocuous cells. Some of our guidance is showing gust potential of
40-50 knots offshore near convective cells this evening. Small
craft operators should think twice before venturing far offshore
this evening.

A cold front will sag south across the waters on Thursday,
bringing a fairly widespread round of strong thunderstorms. That
front will stall out across the northeast Gulf on Thursday night
and Friday. Then a frontal wave will develop off to our west on
Saturday, causing southerly breezes to freshen as the wave moves
east from the Panhandle to northeast Florida.

North and northeast breezes will prevail early next week as a
surface high moves by to the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A slow-moving cold front will sag south across the region on
Thursday. It will be accompanied by numerous strong thunderstorms.
Slow movement of the front will enable a widespread wetting rain.
A break in the rain is likely on Thursday night, then more rain
will return on Friday and especially Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding concern has lessened for Thursday. Rainfall forecasts are
now in the 1-1.5 inch range, which should be manageable.

The next heavier round of rain is expected on Saturday. Forecast
rainfall is mostly in the 1-2 inch range, while river guidance
shows it would take nearly 4 inches of rain to bring most river to
minor flood. 4 inches is not out of the question, but this is an
outlier possibility at this point. Certainly, there will be rises
on rivers this weekend and early next week, but river flooding is
unlikely.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  75  59  74  59 /  20  80  20  30  50
Panama City   67  75  59  73  61 /  40  80  10  40  50
Dothan        63  74  54  68  55 /  70  80  10  30  70
Albany        63  75  54  71  55 /  50  90  10  20  60
Valdosta      63  76  57  73  57 /  10  80  20  30  40
Cross City    62  78  62  79  61 /   0  60  40  30  20
Apalachicola  66  74  62  72  62 /  10  70  10  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

ALZ066-067-GAZ120>123-142-142330-
Dale AL-Henry AL-Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Calhoun GA-Clay GA-Early GA-
646 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALE AND HENRY
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...
WESTERN CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN EARLY AND SOUTHWESTERN QUITMAN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 730 PM EDT/630 PM CDT/...

At 645 PM EDT/545 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking unusually
gusty showers along a line extending from near Richards Crossroads
to near Clio. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Fort Gaines, Blakely, Headland, Ozark, Edison, Newton,
Ariton, Newville, Bellville, Haleburg, Bluffton, Shorterville,
Parksville, Carnegie, Hayes, Watson Crossroads, Scottsboro
Crossroads, Ricks Place and Pecan.

LAT...LON 3159 8458 3135 8492 3136 8557 3162 8574
      3162 8542 3171 8542 3170 8522 3174 8520
      3177 8516 3177 8512 3178 8514 3183 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 295DEG 31KT 3176 8518 3170 8566

11-MM