Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1220 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

Unfavorable conditions are expected to begin over the next several
hours and remain unfavorable through the rest of the taf period.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread over the area from SW
to NE starting early this morning, with decreasing thunder chances
further inland. At least IFR conditions are expected for all sites
most of the period, with VLIFR and LIFR conditions expected as
well. Some marginal improvement (VLIFR/LIFR to IFR) may be
possible in the afternoon, but conditions should deteriorate again
overnight tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [853 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Despite very light winds at the
surface, onshore flow above the boundary layer will increase
overnight ahead of an approaching shortwave, increasing moisture and
cloud cover. Over the eastern Big Bend, expect low clouds and some
fog to develop this evening and spread northwestward. Towards
morning, there will likely be showers and a few thunderstorms
developing over the Gulf into the western Panhandle, spreading
northeastward. This activity will likely expand through the morning,
with a few thunderstorms possible given the elevated instability.
With mid-level lapse rates around 7 deg/km and reasonable deep layer
shear , some small hail cannot be ruled out from the strongest
storms, especially from the Panhandle coast through the central Big
Bend. However, a rather stable boundary layer should limit the
overall severe potential. Activity should begin to diminish by late
in the afternoon as the forcing exits the area to the east.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

In the wake of Tuesdays' shortwave and associated Gulf low, we'll
remain in an unsettled, zonal pattern. The shortwave will leave a
weakening stationary boundary across our region putting much of
our CWA on the equatorward side, allowing us to remain warm while
sustaining dew points in the 60s. PoPs remain highest (around 50%) along
the boundary, which model guidance currently has positioned along
our northernmost counties. Cloudiness will remain in place
throughout the short term. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s, daytime highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

An unsettled and uncertain period is still expected during the long
term. Model guidance remains unusually high and model spread
among members remains quite large for the incoming cold front(s)
this weekend. Our current forecast has the main cold front passing
through the area on Sunday effectively drying us out and sending
our low temps into below average territory. However, things can
change and the strength and extent of this cold front is still
uncertain, we'll have to keep a close eye on it over the next few
days. In its wake we'll have potentially cold and dry conditions
in store for the beginning of next week. Overnight lows will be
around 60 for the first half of the long term with lows dropping
into the mid and lower 40s through frontal passage. Daytime highs
will be in the mid 70s initially with highs dropping steadily into
the upper 50s after frontal passage.

.MARINE...

Moderate easterly winds will decrease tonight and become
southeasterly tomorrow. Southeasterly winds will remain light, then
increase slightly on Thursday ahead of the next low pressure system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected with a weak system Tuesday
and possibly on Wednesday, then a potentially slow moving system is
expected late this week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds and low mixing heights will keep dispersion values very
low on Tuesday, with showers and few thunderstorms moving across the
region as well. Additional showers will be possible on Wednesday.
However, slightly stronger transport winds will allow for slightly
higher dispersion values.

.HYDROLOGY...

An unsettled pattern remains in place over the next several days.
Rain chances return tomorrow and persist through the beginning of
next week. Widespread 1.5-2 inches are forecast to fall through
Monday, with some areas possibly seeing higher amounts (i.e.,
Florida Panhandle). There are no flood concerns at the moment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  58  73  58  75 /  70  10  20  10  20
Panama City   67  60  71  60  71 /  70  10  20  10  30
Dothan        67  57  71  59  74 /  70  20  50  20  50
Albany        67  57  70  59  74 /  50  20  50  30  40
Valdosta      69  58  74  59  77 /  60  10  30  10  20
Cross City    72  57  77  57  77 /  40   0  10   0  20
Apalachicola  66  59  69  59  70 /  60  10  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
116 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

ALZ068-FLZ007-009-090745-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
116 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 116 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lockhart, or near Florala, moving east at 65 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Samson, Paxton, Coffee Springs, Black, Chancellor, Gaskin,
Kellys Crossroads, Lytle, Darlington, Marl, Logan Field Municipal
A/P, Geneva Municipal A/P, Smith Crossroads, New Hope, Somerset,
Caney Creek, Gordon, Miller Crossroads and Earlytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3099 8619 3113 8619 3120 8598
      3120 8577 3093 8571 3085 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 253DEG 57KT 3097 8637

11-MM