Special Marine Warning 50, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

In the upper levels, a weak trough will be over the region today.
Nearly zonal flow will be over the region tonight. At the surface, a
weak Gulf Low will move northeastward through the region today. Rain
showers currently over the Gulf and FL Big Bend will move inland
this morning and continue through this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
be isolated this afternoon. Showers will move out of the region
shortly after sunset. Skies will be mostly cloudy today and tonight.
Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows tonight will be
in the mid 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Active weather is expected through the middle of the week as a
strong late season cold front moves through Wednesday night.
On Wednesday afternoon, a line of storms associated with the
front well to our northwest will likely be ongoing and these are
forecast to move into our Alabama counties late Wednesday night as
the front arrives. Severe weather prospects are mostly on the
lower side across our forecast area due to limited instability at
night and the strongest forcing remaining north of the area.
However, enough deep layer shear will still be present to support
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather late
Wednesday night across the northwest parts of our forecast area.
Strong/damaging wind gusts along the main line of storms is the
primary concern. A tornado can't be ruled out, but the tornado
potential appears to be low across the area due to decreasing
instability and low values of low-level wind shear.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across our western FL
Panhandle counties and southeast Alabama counties Wednesday night
with the passing of the front. These showers/storms will become
more scattered/isolated as they push north and east overnight. As
the front comes through early Thursday, you likely won't miss it
because much cooler temperatures will move in along with a notable
increase in the winds out of the north. Sustained winds around 20
to 25 mph behind the front are forecast along with gusts possibly
up to 35 mph.

Thursday will be a breezy and a much cooler afternoon with high
temperatures struggling to break into the 60s across our Alabama
and Georgia counties along with portions of the FL Panhandle. The
low to mid 60s are forecast across the Florida Big Bend. These
temperatures will run about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals and about 20 to 25 degrees cooler than Wednesday's high
temperatures. Besides breezy conditions, expect hazardous marine
conditions as well across our marine zones, especially in offshore
waters where gale force gusts are possible.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Surface high pressure settles in to the region for the end of the
week and with a dry air mass in place and mostly clear skies on
Thursday night, expect chilly overnight low temperatures in the
upper 30s and low 40s across the area.

Dry conditions and breezy (at times) northerly flow remains over
the area on Friday with high temperatures remaining cool in the
low to mid 60s. With mostly clear skies expected again on Friday
night, and a better positioned surface high, overnight lows will
again drop into the upper 30s and low 40s.

For the remainder of the weekend, dry conditions are likely. A
passing trough over the weekend will bring an increase in clouds
Saturday night into Sunday, but with a dry airmass preceding this
feature we're not expecting any precipitation. A slow warming
trend is expected with highs back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

MVFR CIGs are expected this morning at TLH and VLD as rain showers
move into the region from the Gulf. Rain showers will be more
widespread this morning and this afternoon before clearing out this
evening. Thunder (if any) will be confined to coastal areas. VFR
conditions will return by late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Hazardous boating conditions are likely to develop Wednesday night
across area waters as a strong cold front moves through the
region. West winds around knots will rapidly become northerly
behind the front overnight Wednesday with 25 to 30 knot winds
likely by Thursday morning, occasional gale force gusts are
possible. Seas will quickly build from 3 feet to nearly 6 feet.
Occasional seas of 8 feet are possible, especially in offshore
waters. Conditions will likely fall below advisory levels for the
upcoming weekend, but elevated easterly wind and seas are likely
to stick around.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern will be in place through Wednesday night. On Thursday,
a very dry air mass will move into the region. Red Flag conditions
are not expected the next couple of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With forecast precipitation values between 0.25 and 0.75 expected
over the next week across the region, there are no immediate
flooding concerns at this time. Higher totals up to 1.0 inches is
mostly expected across SE Alabama and bordering Georgia counties
over the next several days. Another dry period is expected for
several days beyond Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   81  65  86  49  63 /  30  10   0  30   0
Panama City   78  67  78  47  62 /  30  10  10  30   0
Dothan        78  64  82  42  58 /  60  30  50  60   0
Albany        79  64  86  44  60 /  40  20  30  70   0
Valdosta      81  65  86  50  61 /  80  30   0  30   0
Cross City    84  66  86  55  68 /  50  20   0  10   0
Apalachicola  75  67  77  50  64 /  10  10   0  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Bunker/Dobbs