Special Marine Warning 45, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level low located near the mid-Mississippi Valley this
morning will track into the Tennessee Valley today while a cold
front moves across the southeast. A line of thunderstorms ahead of
the cold front was pushing into the Florida Panhandle as of 06z this
morning and activity will increase across our western counties over
the next hour or two. These storms will continue to track across
the tri-state area and exit the Big Bend by the evening.
Initially, the hi-res guidance timing was off when compared to
radar, however, more recent runs of the HRRR seem to be handling
current trends better.

Portions of the line have been struggling this morning, however, the
environment is still supportive of severe storms today and a tornado
watch was issued earlier that is in effect through 7am ET for the
western half of the CWA. CAPE values are expected to be around 1000
J/kg today, although instability is a bit more limited inland early
this morning. 50kts and 25-30kts of deep and low level shear,
respectively, are generally expected with the better instability.
SPC removed the enhanced risk from southwest Georgia, leaving the
majority of the CWA in the slight risk. While the threat has
decreased some, mainly across SW GA, it's important to remember that
regardless of the threat level today, isolated severe storms are
still expected and it only takes one storm to impact you.

The severe threat will end by this evening as the storms move east
of the region.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Upper level troughing will deepen over the southeast CONUS.
Meanwhile, a wedge of high pressure will build down into the Tri-
state region with an inverted trough developing off the NE FL/SE GA
coast on Saturday. This will likely result in overcast sky
conditions on Saturday but rain is not expected. Temperatures will
be below seasonal levels with highs in the 60s to around 70 Friday
and ranging from the upper 50s north to lower and mid 60s south.
Lows Friday night will mostly be in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The dry weather will continue with a gradual warming trend through
Tuesday as upper ridging builds in from the west ahead of the next
trough and surface cold front. Rain chances return on Wednesday and
Thursday as the front makes it's way into our forecast area.
Temperatures return to near seasonal levels by Tuesday with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

A line of severe storms will move through the TAF sites from west to
east today bringing TSRA and gusty winds to each site. Hi-res
guidance is not handling the line well timing wise and timing in the
TAFs of the TSRA is low to medium at best. Lower cigs (MVFR to IFR)
are expected through the morning, however conditions will improve as
the cold front moves through the TAF locations later today.

&&

.MARINE...

Advisory conditions will continue across the local waters through
mid Friday morning. Southwest winds will shift to northwest in the
wake of a strong cold front today. Some of the storms along and
ahead of the front may become strong to severe. Another period of
advisory level winds will be possible from Saturday into Sunday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens across the local waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion indices today and Friday, there are
no other fire weather concerns at least for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall with today's cold front is not expected to be sufficient
for flooding concerns as most areas will see less than one inch of
rain. The next chance for rain after today won't be until the middle
of next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   79  49  69  48  62 /  90   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  51  67  50  63 /  80   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  47  64  45  59 /  70   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  48  67  44  58 /  90   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  48  69  45  57 /  90   0   0   0  10
Cross City    79  51  71  49  64 /  90  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  52  67  50  63 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Barry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
501 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     TSTM WND GST     CHOCTAW BEACH           30.47N 86.34W
03/18/2021  M41 MPH          WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

            WEATHER STEM SITE MEASURED GUST OF 41 MPH.

&&

TB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE FREEPORT          30.54N 86.12W
03/18/2021  M39 MPH          WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT FREEPORT HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

TB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
521 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW BLUE MOUNTAIN BEA 30.35N 86.23W
03/18/2021  M39 MPH          WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT ED WALLINE PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
540 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOSSY HEAD              30.74N 86.31W
03/18/2021  M39 MPH          WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
610 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 AM     TSTM WND GST     NAPIER FIELD            31.32N 85.45W
03/18/2021  M39 MPH          DALE               AL   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT THE DOTHAN ASOS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOLMES COUNTY AIRPORT   30.85N 85.60W
03/18/2021  M44 MPH          HOLMES             FL   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT K1J0 AWOS.

&&