Special Marine Warning 436, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
643 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Friday]

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions is expected to prevail today as a
weakening frontal system nears the region. However, some
terminals will have a few hours of IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning
until they gradually lift by 15z. Light rain showers will bring
temporary ceiling/visibilities restrictions to MVFR/IFR levels at
times through the period. Light easterly/southeasterly flow will
increase through the afternoon and become southerly by the end of
the TAF period. Late in the TAF period and into Friday morning
expect widespread low ceilings and potentially fog to develop as
the front slowly moves through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [330 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A large central US upper level trough is expected to slowly
translate east through early Friday as cyclonic flow aloft prevails
today. At the surface, moist southerly flow will develop through the
afternoon as a weakening cold front nears the forecast area tonight.
Scattered showers ahead of and along the front are possible as
conditions warm up through the afternoon across the forecast area.
Some thunder can't be ruled out, but with weak instability present,
any thunderstorms would likely be confined to the front off to the
northwest where the greatest upper level support is expected to
reside.

Whatever is left of the frontal boundary this afternoon will slowly
slide into the remainder of the forecast area late tonight. However,
with upper level support quickly moving off to the northeast, and
loss of daytime heating, expect only an isolated shower or two in
the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Weakening front will continue southward and dissipate over the FL
peninsula and Gulf waters Friday. Very little in the way of rain
chances are expected Friday and Friday night. A stronger cold
front will be on its heels and sweep through Saturday. A few
showers could occur in coastal sections early Saturday morning but
moisture will be lacking as the first front scoured out much of
the available moisture. What this front will bring is cooler
temperatures heading into the long term. Highs Friday are expected
to be in the 70s. A decent temperature gradient will exist for
highs Saturday with low 60s in southeast AL to mid 70s in the
eastern FL Big Bend.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure settles into the northern Gulf coast behind
the Saturday cold front. Northwesterly surface flow will continue
through Monday. This will set up cool days and cold nights. Lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the 60s will prevail
with dry conditions. Another dry cold front will pass by Monday
with high pressure, initially over the southern Appalachians
Tuesday, will move off the east coast Wednesday. Mid 60s for highs
on Tuesday but surface winds become easterly beginning Wednesday
which signals a warmup Wednesday and Thursday. Highs during this
later portion will return to the 70s as dry weather continues.

.MARINE...

Onshore southerly flow will prevail today into the evening as high
pressure is situated off the eastern seaboard. Winds will become
northerly beginning Friday behind a cold frontal passage. Another
front Saturday will bring stronger offshore winds and at least
small craft exercise caution conditions Saturday and Saturday
night. Moderate offshore winds will continue into early next week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm conditions continue this afternoon but increased moisture,
scattered showers, and winds around 5 to 10 mph from the south
will keep fire weather concerns low today. A weakening front moves
into the area on Friday with light westerly winds moving in
behind this feature. In the absence of a stronger push of westerly
winds, expect low dispersions on Friday. A stronger front moves
into the area late on Saturday which will bring much cooler and
drier conditions for the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts will generally be around half an inch or less
through the next week with isolated higher amounts within any
thunderstorms as two back-to-back cold front move through the area
through Saturday. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  60  77  52  71 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   77  60  75  54  69 /  40  20  10  10  10
Dothan        77  55  72  47  64 /  40  40   0  10  10
Albany        78  59  74  48  67 /  40  30   0  10  10
Valdosta      78  61  75  50  70 /  30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    79  62  79  55  73 /  20  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  76  62  75  57  70 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Scholl