Special Marine Warning 433, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND THROUGH 5 AM CT / 6 AM ET...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A broad line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to push
eastward across the area today ahead of a strong cold front. Some
of these storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds, a few
tornadoes, and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. Although the
line itself is less organized than initially anticipated, several
embedded supercells have developed within it, which in turn keeps
the gusty wind and tornado threat ongoing with the best chances
for severe weather closer to the coastal counties. Heavy rain
rates are also occuring with these storms, but storm motion has
been fast enough to limit the overall flood threat to vulnerable
urban areas near the coast. Expect these storms to continue
eastward through the morning, eventually exiting the eastern
portions of our area likely in the late morning or early afternoon
hours. Windy conditions will remain in the wake of the front
through at least Friday, and a wind advisory remains in effect for
our coastal areas. High temperatures today will remain a very
humid upper 70s to low 80s with strong moisture advection just
ahead of the front. The windy post-frontal winds will allow for
strong CAA over the area this evening and tonight, bringing low
temperatures well into the 50s across the area.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Mostly dry, cool, and breezy conditions are expected for the
short term period as CAA remains in place behind the front. A
series of a couple of troughs or weak boundaries are forecast to
push across the area, keeping the gradient fairly tight and
leading to a slight chance for showers over the coastal waters and
perhaps near the coast. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday
are forecast to be quite cool in the low/mid 60s inland to the low
70s across the SE Big Bend. Windy conditions will cause the
apparent temperature to feel a few degrees cooler than that. Low
temperatures overnight are forecast in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The last boundary pushing across finally exits the area and clears
out the rain chances until late in the week when another cold
front begins to approach the region. Winds continue to subside
into the weekend as high pressure settles into the deep south,
remaining just northwest of our area. This will keep northwest to
northerly winds in place through Tuesday, keeping dry conditions
in place. While high temperatures begin to rebound into the mid
70s, low temperatures will remain cool if not a touch cooler for
Sunday night as the high pressure moves closer and radiational
cooling is maximized. Winds become easterly again Wednesday as
high pressure moves eastward and another front begins to work its
way eastward across the south. High temperatures will increase a
bit into the mid to upper 70s with low temperatures rebounding
into the mid to upper 50s as moisture slowly returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

Messy pattern through the period as a broad line of showers and
storms moves across the area ahead of a strong cold front. Expect
deteriorating conditions from W to E through the night before
improving from W to E through the day. Gusty winds in the wake of
the front will remain through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Deteriorating boating conditions will continue over the next
several hours and will persist through Saturday morning. A strong
cold front with some strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing
through our forecast waters tonight and will continue through
Thursday morning. Gusty westerly winds up to 40 knots with
sustained winds near 30 knots at times behind the front will
elevate seas up to 15 feet through Friday night. Given these
conditions, a Gale Warning remains in effect. Beyond Friday
night, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to extend
through Saturday and Saturday night as seas will take time to
settle as the upper level system finally lifts north of the region
during the day Saturday. Conditions should continue to improve
through Sunday and into the following work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersions are expected today with very strong transport
winds in the wake of a strong cold front. Relative humidity
values will remain well above critical thresholds. Winds will
remain breezy through at least Friday. A wind advisory is in
effect for our coastal zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through the
region through the early morning hours today. While heavy
rainfall is expected with some of these storms, the progression of
the squall line and proceeding showers should be fast enough that
widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Area rivers remain
in decent shape, therefore, there are no concerns with river
flooding at this time. The main concern hydrology-wise will be
the coastal flooding in Apalachee Bay due to very strong onshore
flow along Taylor and Dixie counties. Given this threat, a coastal
flood advisory has been issued from Wakulla county to Dixie
county. Although onshore flow is not expected behind the front
along Wakulla and Jefferson counties, a coastal flood advisory was
still issued due to the expected piling up of water in Apalachee
Bay given the strong and consistent flow into the Bay.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  57  68  51  70 /  90  20  30   0   0
Panama City   79  59  68  55  70 /  60  30  40  20  10
Dothan        76  52  64  51  65 /  60  10  10   0   0
Albany        78  53  66  51  66 /  90  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      78  55  69  50  68 /  90  20  20   0   0
Cross City    81  63  73  54  71 /  90  30  50  30  10
Apalachicola  80  60  70  55  69 /  80  40  60  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH  30.21N 85.88W
10/28/2021  M43 MPH          GMZ750             FL   BUOY

            STATION PCBF1 PANAMA CITY BEACH, FL.

&&

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