Special Marine Warning 409, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Shortwave trough diving southward towards the Mid South will
eventually close off an upper low Tuesday then begin to cutoff by
late Tuesday. Mid level flow will turn from more westerly to
southwesterly which is a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico. As the
low deepens, favorable dynamics will be in place to support more
heavy rainfall overnight into Tuesday. A flash flood watch is in
effect for the western FL panhandle and portions of southeast
Alabama. In southern Walton and extreme western Bay counties, 3 to
6 inches plus of rainfall fell this morning and these areas are
especially vulnerable to flooding. Portions of the western FL
panhandle have between a 30 to 50 percent chance of 5 inch
exceedance based on the HREF. Although its not raining now, be
prepared for heavy rainfall overnight into Tuesday morning's
commute.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

Upper low cuts off Tuesday night over the Mid South then meanders
around through Wednesday night. Moist trajectories off the Gulf of
Mexico will continue feeding our area cloudiness and showers and
thunderstorms. Have raised pops during this time frame, especially
west of Tallahassee to Albany line with the upper low meandering
around. WPC does have a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
day 3 for small portions of southeast Alabama and adjacent
southwest Georgia. We will need to see how Tuesday rainfall plays
out but believe this area may need to be extended further east for
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

A couple of shortwave troughs from the west will nudge the cutoff
Low that's been settled over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
cutoff Low will begin to lift north-northeast through the day on
Thursday with the Cold Front being able to push in through the day
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
the front, with PoPs around 50-60 percent Thursday through Friday.
PoPs begin to decrease to 30 percent and less through the weekend
following the frontal passage due to slightly drier air moving
in. Daytime highs will not be affected much by the front. Highs
will be in the low 80s for most of the CWA to the mid 80s in the
SE Big Bend region for the beginning of the term and all areas
will be in the low 80s through the rest of the term. Low
temperatures, however, will cool to the mid to upper 60s following
the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Scattered showers and storms continue across the western Florida
panhandle with additional convection beginning east of there into
southern Georgia. Good coverage of convection will continue into
the evening hours. Overnight, rain will be concentrated back west
into the western Florida panhandle including ECP and southeast
Alabama including DHN. Expect degraded flight conditions in
heavier rainfall and overnight MVFR to high IFR in the ECP-DHN
aerodromes.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate southeast flow will set up through much of the
week ahead, with high pressure to the east. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage also as a low pressure
system slowly moves into the southeast states. Winds will become
northerly later this week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet and unsettled pattern will persist through Wednesday across
most of the area. The combination of low mixing heights and
light transport winds will lead to low dispersions across the
entire region through Wednesday. Outside of low dispersions,
there are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Flash flood watch remains in effect for the western FL panhandle
and extreme southeast Alabama. Areas across southern Walton county
received 3-6 inches of radar estimated rainfall with several
reports of flooding. Another round of heavy rainfall is expected
overnight and this area will need to be watched for additional
flooding.

Through the end of the work week, 1-3 inches of rainfall will be
common, with isolated higher amounts especially along and west of
Albany to Tallahassee. Especially in areas that have received
recent heavy rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  82  70  84  71 /  40  80  40  70  30
Panama City   71  78  70  83  71 /  90  90  70  80  60
Dothan        69  76  67  81  68 /  90  90  60  90  50
Albany        70  80  69  84  71 /  60  80  50  80  40
Valdosta      70  83  70  85  71 /  30  70  30  70  20
Cross City    71  85  72  88  71 /  20  50  30  50  20
Apalachicola  74  81  72  82  73 /  60  80  60  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...None.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl