Special Marine Warning 381, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
335 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

As ridging continues to shift eastward over the region we can expect
limited shower and thunderstorm coverage through the near term. For
the remainder of this afternoon and into tonight we'll continue to
see moisture advecting in from the Atlantic Coast (with dewpoints
>70F) along with the Atlantic sea breeze making its way across
our easternmost counties. Any showers or storms associated with
the Atlantic sea breeze are expected to begin fizzling out after
sunset as diurnal heating is lost and subsidence via the incoming
ridge increases. We can expect a bit less coverage tomorrow as the
ridge is directly overhead, effectively keeping a tropical
disturbance, and its peripheral influence, in the western gulf
clear of our land areas. However, our southwesternmost offshore
waters may experience higher PoPs along the periphery of this
disturbance. Areas along the Gulf Coast will still experience
limited coverage from the sea breeze tomorrow due to mesoscale
forcing. Expect daytime highs hovering around 90 degrees with
overnight lows hovering around 70 degrees.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

Complex upper level pattern will develop through the next week
but through Monday, the forecast area will generally be situated
under an upper level ridge. To our west, deep-layer moisture will
be advecting to the north-central Gulf on the eastern periphery
of a tropical wave. With the mid-level dry air expected to still
be in the vicinity of our forecast area, and the influence of the
upper level ridge, only isolated/scattered storms are expected.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Despite the upper level pattern being complex through much of the
upcoming week, one thing that is fairly clear is that a wetter
pattern is expected to emerge. The upper level ridge in place is
expected to weaken as an upper level low ahead of a tropical wave
breaks down the ridge from our west, and another upper level moves
in from the Atlantic to our east. Deep layer moisture moving into
the forecast area on the eastern periphery of the tropical wave
to our west will lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
coverage in the afternoons through much of the week. Despite the
confidence in the wetter pattern through next week, specific
details remain uncertain, especially should the tropical wave on
the western side of the Gulf of Mexico develop further.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of
brief pop-up showers and thunderstorms near or at ECP and TLH later
this afternoon and into this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly flow regime will prevail over the waters through much of
the upcoming week, though winds and seas are likely to remain
below cautionary levels. Shower and thunderstorms are possible
daily, but the greatest chances for storms will likely be towards
the middle/end of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will prevail through
Monday, with prevailing easterly flow. A turn to southeast flow on
Tuesday will bring a progressively moister air mass and an uptick
in showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through the end of the
week ahead. Otherwise, moderate breezes on Sunday will support
locally high dispersion values over inland districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Generally light rainfall amounts are forecast over the next several
days (about 1 inch or less) as there is no significant moisture
to produce widespread precipitation. However, thinking may change
based on the evolution of a tropical disturbance that is expected
to straddle along the west Gulf coast. Some moisture from that
system may bring wetter weather than currently advertised, so stay
tuned. Meanwhile, several rivers in the Ochlockonee and Suwannee
basins remain in action stage but are either cresting or falling
(except Pinetta CR-50, which is rising). There are no flood
concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  91  71  91  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
Panama City   72  89  72  88  73 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dothan        68  90  69  89  70 /  10  10   0  20  10
Albany        69  91  68  91  70 /   0  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      69  90  69  90  70 /  10  10   0  20  10
Cross City    73  90  72  91  72 /  40  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  74  86  75  86  74 /  30  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3