Special Marine Warning 377, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Main story through the the next 24 hours will be the tropical
disturbance across northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico as it
moves slowly northeast towards the northeast Gulf Coast. The
organization of this feature, currently with the identifier 91L,
has improved markedly over the last 12 hours. Despite these recent
trends of organization, the greatest threats with this system
continue to revolve around heavy rain, life-threatening rip
currents, and the low end potential for tornadoes. While there are
concerns for the winds due to the nature of this system, strong
wind gusts will likely be confined to any of the outer bands of
this feature, and the greatest potential for tropical storm force
gusts will be along the coastline.

Due to the limited development time for this feature and the small
nature of the wind field, coastal flooding impacts are not
expected, but water levels could run slightly above normal. The
main impacts from a hydrologic prospective will be the flooding
rains (described in more detail below in the hydrology section).

Whatever is left of this tropical disturbance by Thursday
afternoon, it should be well east of the forecast area. Northwest
flow will take over behind this disturbance with only isolated
chances for showers/storms expected for the afternoon period on
Thursday.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

A weak, diffuse boundary will remain draped across the southeast FL
Big Bend through the day Friday. Quite a moisture gradient sets up
over the area with PWATs ranging from as low as 0.75 inches in
southeast AL to near 1.75 inches in the southeast Big Bend. This
will keep a low-end chance for showers/storms in play for the
southeast Big Bend. Meanwhile, the drier air on the backside of this
boundary will squash rain chances to less than 20% elsewhere in the
CWA. In fact, it will feel quite refreshing outside of the southeast
FL Big Bend where dew points will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s across the area. Low
temperatures will range from the middle 60s in the northwest zones
to the lower 70s in the southeastern zones.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A quick-passing shortwave trough passes over the area on Sunday, but
with dry air in place, little impact is expected. A weak ridge
builds in over the southeast US in its wake, which elongates into
next week. This leaves us in an easterly flow pattern next week.

Our hint of drier air is short lived as low-level winds become more
southeasterly again this weekend, bringing back an increase in
moisture and dew points back to the 70s. This pattern remains in
tact through the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible each day, primarily in the afternoons.
The better chances (about 30-45%) will be over the Florida counties
with lower chances inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through today with occasional
periods of IFR in bands of heavy rain into the overnight hours.
Winds will be out of the southeast then will gradually become
northwesterly by tomorrow after the tropical disturbance moves
through the region. In the overnight hours, IFR/LIFR conditions
will prevail, especially across our inland terminals, while
another round of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
move through overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Marine conditions quickly deteriorate tonight as a tropical
disturbance passes over our area tonight. As a result, seas will
build to 4 to 8 feet, and winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots
tonight. Some gusts of 30 to 35 knots are possible. Winds and waves
quickly diminish during the day Thursday. Seas will then remain
about 1 to 2 feet with winds around 5 to knots through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very wet pattern is underway through tonight and Thursday.
Outside of low dispersions across the FL Panhandle, there are no
other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Expect areas of heavy rainfall to continue, especially near the
coast through the afternoon and evening in association with the
tropical system. Model guidance has been in good agreement today
with the placement of additional heavy rainfall along the coast or
just inland. The expectation is for an additional 2-4 inches of
rain with isolated 6 inch maximum amounts on top of what occurred
this morning. Given recent rainfall and saturated soils from
Panama City eastward along and south of I-10, a flash flood watch
remains in effect.

Riverine impacts should be limited to the smaller creeks and
streams of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend (Econfina and Bear
Creeks, Sopchoppy River, and possibly the Steinhatchee River)
where any flooding should stay within the minor flood category.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  88  69  89  70 /  90  40  10  20  10
Panama City   72  87  68  87  69 /  80  40  20  10  10
Dothan        69  86  64  86  65 /  50  30   0  10  10
Albany        71  88  65  87  67 /  70  30   0  10  10
Valdosta      71  86  67  87  68 /  80  40  10  20  10
Cross City    74  86  72  88  72 /  80  60  30  40  20
Apalachicola  73  85  71  85  72 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND C-TOWER                 29.40N 84.85W
09/08/2021  M48 MPH          GMZ755             FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            A MEASURED WIND GUST OF 42 KNOTS AT C TOWER.

&&

KGG