Special Marine Warning 357, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

Convection is getting an early start this morning at TLH and ECP
with MVFR/IFR conditions. This activity is along and south of a
surface trough moving through. At the remaining terminals mainly
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys due to fog this morning but there are still
chances for convection at these locations through the remainder
of the TAF cycle. Winds at all terminals outside of showers and
thunderstorms will be from the southwest mainly 10 knots or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [424 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level trough generally east of the Mississippi will
continue to deepen with much drier air filtering in the mid and
upper levels. At the surface, a trough will push through from
northwest to southeast by mid to late afternoon and a cold front
will drop south into our northern zones by daybreak Thursday. As a
result, the deep layer moisture that currently stretches west to
east across our CWA will gradually get suppressed further to the
south during the day. There will be a sharp north to south PoP
gradient across our forecast area today with the highest chances
over our Florida zones. For tonight, there will still be a modest
amount of moisture ahead of the cold front to keep chances for
convection in the forecast overnight with the best chances
continuing over the Florida zones. Highs today will be around 90
with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

As the remnants of Ida continue to push towards the NE and merge
with an upper level trough, we'll see the trough push a front
through our region throughout the day on Thursday and into Friday.
Although this front won't decrease our high temps by much, it
should filter in some relatively drier air, potentially bringing
our dewpoints down into the low 60s on Friday. As this front
pushes south our precip chances also shift southward as subsidence
moves in behind the front, thus most of the activity should
remain confined to our Florida counties and Gulf waters. Expect
daytime highs in the low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Through the long term a ridge builds in from the west as the
aforementioned front stalls out and dissipates to our south over the
weekend. This will result in PWAT values around 1 inch of less to
filter into the region from the north, along with dewpoints that dip
into the upper 50s at times. This will result in lower than average
PoPs for this time of the year. Towards the end of the long term a
backdoor cold front associated with a trough riding over the ridge
may increase our rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday as southerly
flow reestablishes. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 90s with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

.MARINE...

As Tropical Depression Ida continues northeast one more push from
rainbands is expected across the region today. This will keep winds
and seas elevated through tomorrow. Winds and seas will decrease
late in the week with generally 1-2 foot seas for the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns through the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

As the remnants of Ida merge with the upper level trough, the
focus of the heavier rain will shift to our Florida counties, with
the SE Big Bend having the best potential for heavy precip today.
The WPC has highlighted the Big Bend in a slight risk for flash
flooding. Given previous issues with standing water across the
region, the rainfall totals will need to be watched closely as the
rainband reestablishes itself throughout the day. Another 1 to 4
inches are possible across the region through this weekend, with
the highest amounts around the SE Big Bend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  72  90  71  91 /  50  30  60  10  20
Panama City   88  73  87  72  89 /  50  30  50  10  10
Dothan        89  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30   0  10
Albany        89  70  90  70  91 /  30  20  30   0  10
Valdosta      88  71  89  70  90 /  40  30  60  10  20
Cross City    85  74  87  73  90 /  90  30  80  30  30
Apalachicola  86  74  86  74  87 /  80  40  50  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Oliver