Special Marine Warning 294, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

As an inverted trough continues to make its way across our Gulf
waters through tomorrow afternoon and the Bermuda high to our north
continues to move westward, we'll continue to experience southeast
to easterly flow. This will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to
push inland across our region, primarily impacting our easternmost
counties. Given that the sea breeze doesn't push far enough inland
before sunset, shower and storm activity associated with the sea
breeze is expected to naturally wind down after sunset. Expect
daytime highs in the low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

Tropical Depression 9 (soon-to-be Ida), currently located over the
central Caribbean Sea, will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
Saturday morning and into the central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
night. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge over the southern Appalachians
will remain in place on Saturday. The flow between these two systems
will remain out of the southeast, bringing deep, tropical moisture
into our area with PWATs in excess of 2 inches.

With abundant moisture across our CWA, we can expect high rain
chances through the day Saturday. Scattered coastal showers and
storms in the morning will develop farther inland and become
widespread through the remainder of the day. PoPs are very high
areawide (60-80%). The moist atmosphere could also allow for some
locally heavy downpours in some of the storms. With the tropical
cyclone passing to our southwest, our western and coastal zones as
well as our offshore waters could continue to see at least scattered
showers through Saturday night. High temperatures will be near 90
with heat indices between 95 and 100.

A high risk of rip currents is expected along the beaches as surf
begins to build and long-period swells from soon-to-be Ida arrive.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

This part of the forecast is highly dependent on the eventual track
of what is forecast to be Hurricane Ida. With a rather large amount
of uncertainty in Ida's track, there is uncertainty in how that will
affect our local weather. Please continue to monitor the latest
updates.

As soon-to-be Ida makes landfall along the north central Gulf Coast
sometime on Sunday or early Monday, we will likely see an increased
chance for showers and thunderstorms from some of the outer bands,
particularly in our Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties. PoPs
in these areas will be around 70-90%. Lower, but still decent, rain
chances (50-70% PoPs) continue across the Big Bend and Georgia
counties. This continues into Monday and Tuesday as Ida moves
inland, though rain chances decrease somewhat heading into the
middle to late part of next week.

As far as tropical impacts from Ida, it remains too early to
determine the exact threats and their magnitudes and extent. What we
can be certain of is that a high rip current risk will likely remain
in place for our beaches through much of next week. Wind, flooding,
storm surge, and tornado threats remain uncertain. Please continue
to monitor the latest forecast updates over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are making their way into
our region from the east. These aren't expected to be robust or long
lived, thus any impacts to terminals will be short lived. Brief
impacts, if any, this afternoon will begin at VLD and move westward
with time, impacting ABY, TLH followed by ECP and DHN. Once the sun
sets later this evening, these showers and storms are expected to
wind down, clearing out by 03Z. Fog may be possible tomorrow morning
near sunrise at/around terminals that receive precipitation today.
The most likely terminal would be VLD, however, fog at TLH, ABY and
DHN is also possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Breezy east to southeast winds near 15 knots will continue to
result in cautionary conditions through Friday night. As Tropical
Depression Nine strengthens and moves over the Gulf of Mexico
toward the north central Gulf Coast this weekend, winds and seas
will increase to advisory levels. Sustained winds will be near 20
knots well offshore in the western zones. Seas will build to 6-10
feet over the weekend, possibly up to 14 feet well offshore in the
western areas. Advisory-level conditions will continue through at
least Monday with winds and waves slowly subsiding heading into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Easterly transport winds will remain elevated through this
weekend, this will support elevated dispersion values. Otherwise,
the main concern will be erratic and gusty winds near scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The remaining couple of river points in flood will continue to fall
through the weekend. Rain chances increase this weekend as deeper
moisture moves over the area. At the same time, Tropical Depression
9 (forecast to become Hurricane Ida) should be moving northwestward
across the central Gulf of Mexico. There will be a tight gradient in
the rainfall forecast for future Ida, and with the current forecast
the highest totals remain west of our area. A widespread 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast across the FL Panhandle, Western Big
Bend, and SE Alabama early next week with isolated higher amounts
possible. There remains some uncertainty in the forecast with future
Ida, and a shift in track to the east would likely increase the
potential rainfall from the system. Conversely, a westward shift
would lower the expected rainfall. Overall, the current forecast or
especially a more easterly forecast would likely bring the potential
for rises on area rivers, particularly west of the
Flint/Apalachicola river basins. Please keep up with the latest
forecasts on future Ida.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  74  90  75 /  40  70  30  80  40
Panama City   74  91  75  89  75 /  50  50  40  80  60
Dothan        72  91  73  89  73 /  30  50  10  70  30
Albany        75  92  74  90  75 /  20  70  10  60  20
Valdosta      74  90  74  90  74 /  30  70  10  70  20
Cross City    74  91  75  90  75 /  50  70  30  80  40
Apalachicola  76  87  77  87  77 /  50  50  50  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield