Special Marine Warning 208, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1029 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.UPDATE...

PoPs were lowered north of the Florida State line for today as
substantial mid level dry air observed on this mornings TAE
sounding has penetrated much further south than previously
anticipated. This will likely lower shower and thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon across the aforementioned areas above.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [649 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A warm and humid air mass will remain over the area today with a
front stalled to the north. A longwave trough will continue to
rotate across the eastern CONUS today, helping some drier air
filter into the mid and upper levels across portions of Alabama
and Georgia. As this trough axis swings around today and daytime
heating gets going, expect scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across the FL Panhandle and Big
Bend. Heavy rainfall will likely be the primary threat, although a
few could also produce gusty winds, especially if storms form
more to the north with the drier mid level air. Highs are forecast
mostly in the 80s with low temperatures tonight in the low to mid
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

A front will be stalled along or near the northern Florida border
though this period. Somewhat drier air behind the front will mean
lower shower and thunderstorm chances for the northern half of the
area, but the southern half of the area will see higher chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will show the
opposite pattern with higher temperatures north and more subdued
warmth south of I-10 due to cloud cover and convective coverage.
There is a threat for localized pockets of heavy rain continuing
into Monday.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The beginning to middle part of the week depends heavily on the
track and intensity of Elsa. Our area continues to be within the
NHC's 5 day cone of uncertainty, and it's important to keep in
mind that the average error on the NHC day 4 track forecast is
around 175 miles, and the average error on the NHC day 5 track
forecast is around 200 miles. We encourage everyone to pay
attention to future forecast updates on the storm.

This is also a great time to be sure you have evacuation plans in
place in case that becomes necessary, and to check to make sure
your emergency supply kits are fully stocked.

Once the threat from Elsa has passed, the remainder of the week
will remain unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Low ceilings should improve through the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today with the best chance across
the FL Panhandle, Big Bend and far S GA. Another round of low cigs
is possible tonight, but confidence is lower than previous nights.

.MARINE...

A cold front will move slowly across southern Alabama and Georgia
today. South of the front, moderate to occasionally fresh west
breezes will prevail. The front will stall across the Panhandle on
Sunday, then dissipate on Monday. Winds will ease as the front
weakens and dissipates. Elsa is forecast to enter the southeast
Gulf early next week, and mariners should monitor its progress.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions will continue today. Low dispersions are
expected with low mixing heights and light transport winds this
afternoon. No fire weather concerns are anticipated.

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect the area over the next several days with localized pockets
of heavy rain. Rainfall from this activity is not expected to be
enough to produce widespread flooding, although localized pockets
of flooding are possible in urban and poor drainage areas that see
heavy rainfall rates. If Elsa moves into the area, then rainfall
amounts could be higher with a higher threat of flooding, but that
remains highly uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  73  87  72  88 /  50  40  70  30  70
Panama City   84  75  86  73  85 /  50  60  50  40  60
Dothan        88  71  88  72  88 /  20  30  30  10  50
Albany        90  72  91  72  91 /  20  30  30  10  50
Valdosta      87  71  87  71  88 /  40  20  70  20  60
Cross City    85  73  86  72  88 /  60  70  80  50  70
Apalachicola  83  75  85  75  84 /  60  70  70  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Bunker
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...DVD