Special Marine Warning 193, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
357 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

An upper level vorticity maxima is expected to move through the
northeastern Gulf tomorrow, which will aid in some shower and
thunderstorm development later in the day across primarily the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.  At the surface, a strong high
pressure system well east of Bermuda in the north Atlantic will
develop strong easterly flow through all levels of the atmosphere
across our region starting tomorrow. Not only will this increase the
Rip current risk through the latter half of the week, but a more
typical seabreeze pattern may start to develop across coastal
regions of the Big Bend and panhandle starting tomorrow. These
storms will be supported by lingering mid and upper level moisture
across the region with PW values still sitting around 1.5-1.75
through tomorrow. Expect storm coverage to push inland to about
the Florida Georgia border tomorrow evening before starting to
dissipate towards sunset as instability wanes. Temperatures
tomorrow will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
across much of the region, with lows tonight dipping into the
upper 60s thanks to some drier air that will be moving in tonight
associated with a backdoor front.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

An expansive area of high pressure north of Bermuda will expand
west across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Therefore,
deep southeast flow will prevail. This will maintain a seasonably
moist and unstable air mass will lead to scattered coverage of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, except for the nighttime
flareup over the Gulf waters. The coverage of storms will be less
than what we have seen in recent days. This will bring
thunderstorm coverage back down closer to normal.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue with some
level of thunderstorms each day. The official forecast shows
near-persistence rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday, with a
small uptick on Wednesday and Thursday.

The main feature to watch will be the upper low currently located
southeast of Bermuda. It will amble west through this weekend
while opening up into an inverted mid-upper level trough. As it
reaches the Bahamas around Sunday night or Monday, our upper flow
will become more northeasterly, and a 500 mb ridge axis will
temporarily nudge across the forecast area from the northeast.
This would lessen thunderstorm coverage slightly from Sunday
through Tuesday.

Then on Wednesday and Thursday, what is left of this feature will
have moved west of our longitude, with a resumption of
southeasterly mid-upper flow. This will bring a relative ramp-up
in storm coverage.

Again, the day-to-day variations in our sensible weather will be
somewhat subtle.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

VFR conditions are predominantly being observed across all
terminals this afternoon, except for brief bouts of MVFR
conditions due to shower and thunderstorms within the vicinity of
TLH and VLD. Shower and Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
expand to ECP, DHN, and ABY by later this evening, which may also
cause brief MVFR/IFR conditions if they impact the terminal. MVFR
CIGs look to develop prior to sunrise on Friday across ECP, TLH,
and VLD, but are expected to lift to VFR conditions by early
morning.

&&

.MARINE...

For the first time since the passage of TS Claudette last
weekend, buoys 42039 and 42036 have finally observed seas subside
to less than 2 feet this afternoon. A prolonged period of east-
southeast flow will set up starting tonight. This pattern features
a daily rhythm of nocturnal surges spreading westward across the
northeast Gulf, with afternoon lulls over Apalachee Bay.

An expansive area of high pressure north of Bermuda will extend a
broad ridge westward across the Carolinas and the southern
Appalachians tonight, establishing a prolonged period of
prevailing moderate east to southeast breezes. This setup will
continue through the weekend and into early next week. Nocturnal
easterly surges off the Florida Peninsula will bring occasional
periods of fresh breezes over the northeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will decrease
back to near normal from Friday through the weekend. However,
gusty and shifty winds will continue to be a concern near
scattered thunderstorms. Otherwise, moderate east to southeast
breezes will prevail starting Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Following the heavy rain that occurred this past Sunday through
Tuesday, the upper reaches of most area rivers are receding. The
highest river levels are now passing into lower reaches of our
rivers, most notably on the Choctawhatchee. Nonetheless, we have
no river in flood stage. A typical coverage of summertime
afternoon thunderstorms over the next week will not provide enough
single-day coverage of heavy rain for river flooding to be a
concern.

So the main flooding concern will come from locally torrential
downpours under the core of summer thunderstorms. The intense
one- hour rain rates can bring short-duration drainage issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  88  70  91  71 /  40  40  20  40  30
Panama City   71  85  73  88  74 /  60  50  20  50  30
Dothan        69  87  69  89  71 /  20  30  20  50  10
Albany        68  90  70  92  72 /  20  20  10  40  10
Valdosta      67  88  69  90  71 /  20  50  10  50  10
Cross City    69  88  70  89  71 /  30  70  20  50  20
Apalachicola  73  84  74  86  75 /  40  40  30  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Friday for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

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