Rip Current Statement 64, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
918 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs chances slightly to account for showers around
Albany for this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [641 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The CWA is on the north side of a low level ridge stretching across
the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning with generally south to
southwest flow across the region. PW values are expected to be
slightly lower then yesterday across the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama (1.8 inches) but similar to yesterday across
portions of southwest Georgia and the Big Bend (~2 inches). Showers
and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon with PoPs around
40% and activity will diminish tonight. Highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

The upper level pattern across the United States will become
highly amplified by the end of the weekend as a large upper level
low moves into the Midwest. The local area will be situated on
the southeastern periphery of this upper level ridge while at the
surface the Bermuda high strengthens westward. This will lead to
increased southeasterly flow into next week and plenty of
available moisture for scattered showers and storms on Sunday. An
upper level trough will move west into the area on Monday and mid-
level dry air on the westward side of this trough could temper
shower chances somewhat, but with plenty of low level moisture
sticking around, have left scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

As the upper level low over the midwest lifts out through the
period, the westerlies will recede to the northern tier of the US
with upper level ridging anticipated to build in across the
region. At the surface, the moist southeasterly trades in
association with strong Bermuda high will likely take over. Expect
daily shower and thunderstorms throughout the week along with
temperatures generally in the low 90s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

A few low stratus clouds/fog will be possible this morning,
however conditions will quickly improve by 13-14z. A few showers
will be possible this morning with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible at each of the TAF sites this afternoon.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will be on the lower side through much of the
weekend with the only boating concerns being shower and
thunderstorm chances by the end of weekend. Winds will be out of
the southwest and south through the weekend around 5 to 10 knots.
Pattern change into next week will bring the area stronger
southeast winds (around 10 to 15 knots) which will increase seas
along with bringing greater coverage of showers and storms,
especially in the overnight hours.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with rain
chances increasing to around 60% for much of the region tomorrow. RH
values will range from the upper 40s to upper 60s with winds mostly
on the lighter side.

.HYDROLOGY...

Elsa's rainfall pushed stretches of the Fenholloway River above
flood stage. The river appears to have crested at Foley and will
commence a slow recession. The Steinhatchee River is still rising
slowly, but should crest just shy of moderate flood stage. Flooding
is forecast on the lower Suwannee River with contributions from the
already flooded Santa Fe and Elsa's rainfall. Rock Bluff is forecast
to reach flood stage on Tuesday night. Downstream Manatee Springs
may reach flood stage later next week. No significant rainfall
events are anticipated through the next 5 days, so additional
concerns are low but as usual for summer rainfall, some low end
concerns exist should any afternoon storms train over these
flooded basins.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  72  90  73  89 /  40  20  50  20  50
Panama City   88  76  86  75  86 /  30  10  40  20  40
Dothan        90  72  89  72  88 /  40  20  60  10  70
Albany        93  74  92  73  91 /  40  20  60  10  70
Valdosta      90  72  90  71  90 /  40  20  60  10  60
Cross City    90  73  89  72  89 /  40  10  50  20  60
Apalachicola  87  76  86  75  85 /  20  10  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Montgomery
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs