Heat Advisory 4, NWS Tallahassee, FL

863 
WWUS72 KTAE 310726
NPWTAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021

ALZ069-FLZ009>019-026-027-112-114-115-118-127-GAZ123>127-142>146-
155>159-010000-
/O.CON.KTAE.EH.W.0002.210731T1500Z-210801T0000Z/
Houston-Holmes-Washington-Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf-
Inland Franklin-Gadsden-Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Liberty-
Inland Wakulla-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Worth-
Early-Miller-Baker-Mitchell-Colquitt-Seminole-Decatur-Grady-
Thomas-Brooks-
Including the cities of Dothan, Ashford, Cottonwood, 
Barker Store, Leonia, New Hope, Bonifay, Holmes County Airport, 
Cobb Crossroads, Crystal Lake, Poplar Head, Chipley, 
Chipley Municipal Airport, Orange Hill, Five Points, Marianna, 
Simsville, Richter Crossroads, Browntown, Graceville, Malone, 
Sneads, Bennett, Econfina, Nixon, Youngstown, Abe Springs, 
Blountstown, Clarksville, Durham, Frink, Marysville, 
Scotts Ferry, Howard Creek, Dalkeith, Honeyville, Wewahitchka, 
Beverly, Buck Siding, Fort Gadsden, Morgan Place, Littman, 
Quincy, Quincy Airport, Santa Clara, Wetumpka, Chattahoochee, 
Hardin Heights, Bradfordville, Capitola, Chaires, 
Chaires Crossroads, Killearn Estates, Killearn Lakes, 
Maclay State Gardens, Tallahassee, Alma, Capps, Casa Blanco, 
Dills, Drifton, Festus, Jarrott, Monticello, Lovett, Cherry Lake,
Hanson, Hopewell, Madison, Pinetta, Sweetwater, Bethel, 
Hilliardville, Wakulla Springs, Panama City, Callaway, Cairo, 
Lynn Haven, Southport, Vicksburg, Magnolia Beach, Oak Grove, 
Odena, Port St. Joe, White City, Beacon Hill, Overstreet, 
Saint Joe Beach, Apalachicola, Apalachicola Airport, Bay City, 
Tilton, Creels, Hays Place, High Bluff, Buckhorn, Medart, 
Panacea, Sopchoppy, Port Leon, Saint Marks, Arlington, 
Commissary Hill, Cordrays Mill, Dickey, Morgan, Williamsburg, 
Edison, Clarks Mill, Dawson, Dawson Municipal A/P, Doverel, 
Graves, Herod, Yeomans, Albany, East Albany, Lockett Crossing, 
Pretoria, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Turner City, Walker, 
Forrester, Leesburg, Palmyra, Alfords, Gammage, Gordy, Isabella, 
Red Rock, Sylvester, Sylvester Airport, Douglasville, Blakely, 
Centerville, Cuba, Early Co A/P, Enterprise, Mayhaw, Babcock, 
Bellview, Boykin, Colquitt, Cooktown, Elmodel Wma, Hawkinstown, 
Hoggard Mill, Newton, Red Store Crossroads, Iveys Mill, Milford, 
Branchville, Camilla, Mitchell Co A/P, Cotton, Pelham, Moultrie, 
Moultrie Municipal A/P, Spence Airport, Davis Park, 
Donaldsonville A/P, Donalsonville, Little Hope, Riverturn, 
Fairchild, Seminole State Park, Ausmac, Bainbridge, 
Decatur Co A/P, Hanover, Lynn, Steinham Store, West Bainbridge, 
Beachton, Capel, Elpino, Grady Co A/P, Moncrief, Pine Park, 
Dillon, Metcalf, Pasco, Thomasville, Blue Springs, Brooks Co A/P,
Dixie, Empress, Nankin, Quitman, and Grooverville
326 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 /226 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM
CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with peak heat index values 
  of 110 to 115 expected. 

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, south central and 
  southwest Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the Florida Big Bend. 

* WHEN...From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this 
  evening. 

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and 
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks 
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an 
emergency, call 9 1 1.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in 
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during 
warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal 
temperatures in a matter of minutes.

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of 
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot 
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a DANGEROUS 
SITUATION in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of 
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and 
check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

ALZ065>068-FLZ007-008-028-029-034-108-128-134-GAZ120>122-128>131-
147-148-160-161-010000-
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0004.210731T1500Z-210801T0000Z/
Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-North Walton-Central Walton-
Inland Taylor-Lafayette-Inland Dixie-South Walton-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Dixie-Quitman-Clay-Randolph-Turner-Tift-Ben Hill-Irwin-
Cook-Berrien-Lowndes-Lanier-
Including the cities of Battens Crossroads, Enterprise, 
Enterprise Municipal A/P, Keyton, Asbury, Beamon, 
Blackwell Field A/P, Browns Crossroads, Daleville, Dill, Ewell, 
Fort Rucker, Mabson, Ozark, Blackwood, Headland, 
Headland Municipal A/P, Abbeville, Abbeville Municipal A/P, 
Lawrenceville, Screamer, Geneva, Geneva Municipal A/P, Fadette, 
Hartford, Ganer, Hacoda, Logan Field Municipal A/P, 
Alpine Heights, Argyle, Center Ridge, Cluster Springs, 
De Funiak Spring Airport, De Funiak Springs, Glendale, 
Eucheeanna, Pleasant Ridge, Athena, Boyd, Bucell Junction, 
Cabbage Grove, Carbur, Econfina, Fenholloway, Perry, Midway, 
Buckville, Cooks Hammock, Day, Mayo, Cross City, 
Cross City Airport, Hines, Jonesboro, Old Town, Sandestin, 
Santa Rosa Beach, Turquoise Beach, Bunker, Freeport, Portland, 
Port Washington, Adams Beach, Blue Springs, Cedar Island, 
Dekle Beach, Fish Creek, Howell Place, Yellow Jacket, 
Horseshoe Beach, Jena, Shired Island, Suwannee, Crossroads, 
Georgetown, Hatcher, Wire Bridge, Union, Bagby State Park, 
Days Crossroads, Fort Gaines, Jones Crossing, Moores Crossroads, 
Pecan, Ricks Place, Benevolence, Coles, Cuthbert, Peterson Hill, 
Shivers Mill, Springvale, Springvale Station, Ashburn, Hobby, 
Worth, Chula, Harding, Sunsweet, Tifton, Ashton, Bowens Mill, 
Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Queensland, Westwood, 
Waterloo, Abba, Irwinville, Ocilla, Adel, Cook Co A/P, Greggs, 
Pine Valley, Barneyville, Laconte, Massee, Berrien Co A/P, 
Cottle, Nashville, Weber, Bannockburn, Valdosta, 
Valdosta Regional Airport, Courthouse, Lakeland, and Teeterville
326 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 /226 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Peak heat index values of 108 to 112 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, south central and
  southwest Georgia, the southeast Florida Big Bend, and Walton
  county in the western Florida Panhandle.
  

* WHEN...From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this 
  evening. 

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and 
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks 
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an 
emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is 
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity 
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are 
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
105 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected once again for today and for a
majority of the period, although TLH and ECP have a chance for
vicinity showers and thunderstorms once again today; however, the
chances are lower than yesterday. MVFR visibilities and CIGs will
be possible once again at VLD tomorrow morning before becoming VFR
once again through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1016 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A northwest to southeast oriented mid-upper level ridge centered
over OK/KS will build just a bit more to the southeast into our
area. Meanwhile, surface ridging will continue to wedge down into
our region from the northeast. Forecast soundings show a strong
subsidence inversion at 750mb, a PW of 1.4", and a convective
temperature of around 104 degrees over most of our GA and AL zones.
Meanwhile, over the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle the
inversion can be found roughly at 700mb with PWs around 1.70", and
convective temps around 97 degrees. MOS PoPs for all locations are
low including ECP (< 20%). However, CAMS do show some convection
this afternoon mainly across the interior Florida panhandle where
convective temps are expected to be reached. Went with 20-30% PoPs
for most Florida zones (highest panhandle and coastal areas), and
silent 10% or less elsewhere.

The main focus for today will be the excessively hot temperatures
and heat index values. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 90s most inland areas and lower to mid 90s along the coast.
This coupled with high dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s will
lead to heat index values in the 110-114 range for the Florida
Panhandle and most of the Florida Big Bend. Heat index values in the
107-109 range are expected across Alabama and Georgia as well. An
excessive heat warning has already been issued for the Florida zones
with the exception of Lafayette and Dixie counties. An excessive
heat advisory is in effect for those two counties as well as all of
our Alabama and Georgia counties.

Sensitive parties should limit outdoor exposure tomorrow, and those
that are working outdoors should take frequent breaks and hydrate as
much as possible. Heat safety tips and resources can be found in the
following link: www.weather.gov/safety/heat.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Excessive heat will continue and possibly peak on Saturday. Inland
high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s are forecast to coincide
with sultry dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s. The resulting forecast
heat index values exceed 110 degrees over a large swath of the
forecast area. The main source of uncertainty stems from the fact
that when dewpoints rise above 75 degrees, heat index values
become very sensitive to even small changes in dewpoint. So a one
or two degree difference in dewpoint could make a bigger
difference in the resulting heat index. The official dewpoint
forecast is currently near the higher end of guidance.

The pattern setup will be a strong mid-level ridge on Saturday
extending from Oklahoma to the FL Peninsula. 500 mb heights will
be near 5940 meters, indicating very strong high pressure aloft.
The accompanying warm and dry air aloft will partially suppress
convective development, though any convection that does develop on
Saturday will have a lot of gust potential thanks to entrainment
of dry air aloft into convective downdrafts. Meanwhile, the
decreased cloud coverage under this ridge will allow solar
insolation to heat up the lower atmosphere beneath the warm and
dry conditions aloft. Those sultry dewpoints in the mid- upper 70s
will also prop up nighttime low temperatures, so not much relief
is expected on Sat night.

The pattern will start to change on Sunday, taking the edge off
the heat. The broad upper trough that is currently over the Great
Lakes region will amplify a bit, bringing modest upper height
falls into the Southeast States. Cooling aloft will weaken the
convective cap and allow an increase in convective coverage. The
increase in clouds and convective coverage will take a couple
degrees off both the air temperature and dewpoint, which will
bring heat index values below the criteria for headlines.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

A wetter pattern will be ramping up on Sunday night and Monday,
contributing to the development of below normal temperatures next
week.

A longwave upper trough will persist from the Great Lakes
down into the Southeast States. A surface front will sag south
into Central Alabama and Georgia on Monday and then turn up
stationary. This will put the forecast area in the moist air mass
south of this boundary. The proximity of the front in addition to
normal seabreeze boundaries will support widespread showers and
thunderstorms from Monday through Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft
through the base of the upper trough will bring about 20 knots of
bulk shear, which could support a couple of somewhat longer-lived
multi-cell clusters and ultimately the likely to categorical rain
chances.

The base of the longwave trough should retreat back north next
Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will start to creep down.

.MARINE...

Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will prevail through Saturday
to the north of an Atlantic ridge axis nudging in across Central
and South Florida. Southwest breezes will freshen from Sunday
through Tuesday as a front settles south across Alabama and
Georgia.

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will be hot and dry across most of the tri-state region the next
few days. While fuels will dry out some under these conditions,
available fuel moisture is expected to remain above critical levels
due to recent widespread rains. There are no fire weather concerns
at this time.

.HYDROLOGY...

Suppressed rainfall through Saturday will give rivers the
opportunity to continue slowly receding.

Convective coverage will pick up over the course of Sunday and
Monday, with high coverage then persisting on Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will bring rises on most rivers starting around
the middle of next week. Where locally heavy rainfall
materializes, then minor river flooding will be possible. River
ensemble forecasts point to the Ochlockonee basin as most at risk
of minor flooding given a reasonable worst case scenario, but the
most likely scenarios keep river levels below flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   97  78  97  77  95 /  20  10  30  20  70
Panama City   94  81  93  80  91 /  30  10  20  30  60
Dothan        98  77  97  77  95 /  10   0  50  10  70
Albany        99  78  99  78  97 /   0  10  50  10  70
Valdosta      97  76  97  77  94 /   0   0  30  10  70
Cross City    92  78  92  78  91 /  30  20  30  30  70
Apalachicola  91  80  91  80  90 /  30  20  30  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Taylor-
     Inland Taylor.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

FLZ010-012-112-301930-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Washington FL-
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT/230 PM CDT/...

At 241 PM EDT/141 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles northwest of Lynn Haven, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Ebro, Bayhead, West Bay, Southport,
Gulf Lagoon Beach, Recota Beach, West Panama City, Camp Flowers,
Bahama Beach, Pine Log, Edgewater Gulf Beach, Vicksburg and
Bid-a-Wee.

LAT...LON 3014 8583 3042 8595 3049 8575 3032 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 301DEG 9KT 3038 8576

72-BUNKER