Excessive Heat Watch 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
356 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today begins a multi-day stretch of dangerous heat indices as upper
ridging centered across the middle part of the country extends
eastward into the southeast states. This extra ridging is expected
to result in less convective coverage overall and higher
temperatures. The best chance of thunderstorms today is expected to
be confined closer to the coast and offshore with only low chances
further inland across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.
Meanwhile, low level moisture will remain plentiful, and the
combination of high temperatures and high dewpoints is expected to
drive heat index values to near 108 this afternoon across a large
portion of the area. Thus, a heat advisory remains in effect for
most of the area today. Not much relief is expected tonight with
muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, which will set up an
even hotter days on Friday and Saturday.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Dangerous heat conditions will be the focal point of the short-
term as the axis of a strong ridge noses in further from the
northwest, thus keeping rain chances below seasonal percentages.
This setup should prompt high temperatures to soar into the upper
90s (isolated 100 possible) away from the coast, while lows
uncomfortably drop to the mid-upper 70s. The relative humidity is
going to drive daytime heat indices well into advisory levels
(108-112 degrees), with some locations meeting excessive heat
criteria (>=113 degrees).Therefore, an Excessive Heat Watch has
been issued for the FL Panhandle on Friday, and another (more
widespread) Watch is anticipated for Saturday. These feel-like
temperatures cause heat-related illnesses and symptoms, so taking
the proper actions is essential - hydrating, staying cool,
wearing light-colored clothing, etc. Heat safety tips and
resources can be found in the following link: www.weather.gov/safety/heat.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Hot weather continues on Sunday, albeit slightly less pronounced
than Saturday (highs in the low-mid 90s), but daytime heat indices
stay within advisory range. Although near-seasonal rain chances
(45- 60%) may provide some reprieve, convective coverage is
expected to be isolated to scattered. The ridge responsible for
the dangerous heat weakens by Monday in response to a broad upper
trough swinging across the region, thus putting a merciful end to
the hot streak. We then transition to a wet, unsettled pattern as
an attendant frontal boundary approaches from the north and
provides a focus for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, along with the seabreeze, and plentiful upper-
support. The rainfall forecast is justifiably in the likely to
definite category areawide for the remainder of the period thanks
to troughing remaining in place. The environmental factors should
also allow convection to be strong to perhaps marginally severe
and persist longer than usual after sunset. Stronger storms will
pose a heavy rain, frequent lightning, and downburst threat. The
widespread precipitation and cloud cover is expected to keep high
temperatures mainly below 90 degrees, with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

Some brief patchy fog or low clouds are
possible early this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
to prevail. The best chance of thunderstorms later today is expected
to be near ECP and TLH with only low chances farther north.

&&

.MARINE...

The main boating concerns over the next few days are thunderstorms.
Today looks stormy, with maritime convection already apparent as of
245am ET. Expect coverage to increase through the morning and into
the afternoon. Some storms may be strong, capable of producing
frequent lightning and winds hazardous to vessels. A stray
waterspout cannot be ruled out either. Otherwise, west to southwest
winds at 15 knots or less prevail through the weekend, before
cautionary conditions arrive by Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days outside of occasional low dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Lower than normal precipitation is forecast through the weekend
before a wetter pattern takes place early next week. Widespread
rainfall amounts are 1-2" (isolated 3"+), mainly from Monday to
Thursday. Flooding may be a concern during that timeframe. Several
rivers in Ochlockonee and Suwannee basins remain in action stage,
but are cresting/falling, except Rock Bluff, Wilcox, and Manatee
Springs, where rises are forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  77  97  76  96 /  40  10  20   0  30
Panama City   92  79  93  79  94 /  50  10  20  10  30
Dothan        95  76  97  77  96 /  20   0  20   0  40
Albany        97  77  98  78  99 /  20   0  10   0  40
Valdosta      94  75  98  75  98 /  30   0  10   0  40
Cross City    90  76  93  77  92 /  70  20  30  10  40
Apalachicola  90  79  92  80  92 /  60  20  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Madison.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Jackson-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1121 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SOUTH MOULTRIE    31.14N 83.77W
07/28/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF SOME DAMAGE TO HOMES ON TALLOKAS
            CIRCLE AND TALLOKAS RD.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1133 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W MOSSY HEAD          30.74N 86.33W
07/28/2021  M4.02 INCH       WALTON             FL   MESONET

            THE FSWN MOSSY HEAD WEATHERSTEM MEASURED
            4.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE GLADYS            31.53N 83.20W
07/28/2021                   IRWIN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON DAISY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N NASHVILLE           31.21N 83.25W
07/28/2021                   BERRIEN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS
            BERRIEN COUNTY.

0741 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CECIL               31.04N 83.36W
07/28/2021                   COOK               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON FELLOWSHIP ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

0751 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW COOK CO A/P       31.15N 83.47W
07/28/2021                   COOK               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN WEST OF ADEL. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S BARNEY              30.99N 83.51W
07/28/2021                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ADEL HIGHWAY NORTH OF MORVEN.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0824 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE SOUTH MOULTRIE     31.14N 83.76W
07/28/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON PIONEER TRAIL. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

0826 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SOUTH MOULTRIE    31.14N 83.77W
07/28/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF SOME DAMAGE TO HOMES ON TALLOKAS
            CIRCLE AND TALLOKAS RD.

0826 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SOUTH MOULTRIE    31.14N 83.76W
07/28/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON TALLOKAS ROAD. TIME REPORTED BY
            DISPATCH.

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W PAVO                30.96N 83.76W
07/28/2021                   THOMAS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN AT HARTS MILL AND
            PARRISH ROAD IN PAVO. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW GREENOUGH          31.30N 84.11W
07/28/2021                   MITCHELL           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 112 NORTH OF JERUSALEM
            CHURCH ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

DVD