Alert archive / California / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Sacramento, CA

May 15, 2021Shasta County, California

NWS Sacramento, CA issued this special weather statement at May 15, 2021, 2:47 PM PDT for Shasta County, California. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2021, 2:47 PM PDT (21:47 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2021, 3:30 PM PDT
In force
43 min
Issued by
NWS Sacramento, CA

County Shasta County, CA

The radar

The Medford radar (KMAX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 363 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 15, 1:42 PM PDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 1:42 PM PDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
142 PM PDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures continue, with slightly warmer temperatures
returning early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this weekend, mainly over the mountains, though a few
storms may migrate into the lower elevations late this afternoon
and this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon and tonight the focus will be on the low pressure
area that is currently over Northern San Joaquin valley and where
showers and thunderstorms develop. Currently as the low moves
southward this evening wrap around moisture will be carrying any
activity westward towards the valley. The best chances for any
activity within the valley remains north of Sacramento.
Thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy rain, small hail and
gusty winds.

As the low moves southward into the Southern San Joaquin valley
late tonight chances of showers moving into the valley will
increase over the Northern San Joaquin valley while decreasing
further north. Winds through the Delta will continue to be
breezy overnight but expecting a lower marine layer so chances of
low clouds are not as great as this morning. That said still think
we may see some into the Delta and perhaps eastern side of the
valley and foothills form by morning.

By Sunday afternoon the low will be centered near Las Vegas with
wrap around moisture continuing. Currently it looks like activity
could reach the foothills but not the valley. Warmer temperatures
are expected over the northern valley with slightly cooler
temperatures over the southern areas. As the low moves east
Sunday night activity will diminish. The Delta breeze looks to be
stronger and we should have a slightly higher marine layer than
tonight so low clouds will have a better chance of advecting into
the Sacramento region by Monday morning.

Monday will be dry other than a chance for some afternoon pop up
showers and thunderstorms near the crest from near I-80 southward.
Temperatures will be warmer for most areas with slight cooling
over the north end of the valley and surrounding mountains. Weak
ridging on Tuesday will keep the area dry with some warming of
temperatures.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

No major changes to the extended forecast as confidence remains
high in a cooler weather pattern for NorCal. Max temps are
forecast to run some 5 to 15 degrees below normal during the
period, while min temps look to be about 2 to 10 degrees below
normal. Thursday still looking to be the coolest day out of this
period with highs generally in the 70s for the Valley, the 60s for
the foothills, and 40s and 50s for the mountains.

In addition to the cooler weather, models and ensembles are
hinting at renewed chances for showers. The showery regime is
especially favored over the higher terrain due to topographic
lift and forcing. Snow showers may occur over the higher
elevations, above 5000 or 6000 feet, of the Sierra as well,
mostly likely Thu/Fri. Ensembles show a little disagreement about
how far east the trough is forecast to move over the weekend, but
drier flow and warmer temps look likely.

&&

.AVIATION...

Localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
over the foothills, mountains, and northern Sacramento Valley this
afternoon and into the evening, otherwise, VFR conditions. Onshore
winds from the W to SW up to 15-20 kt around the Delta with gusts
to 30 kt possible in the Delta after 00z Sun. Elsewhere, winds
generally below 10 kt.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 2:47 PM PDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
247 PM PDT Sat May 15 2021

CAZ013-152230-
Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
247 PM PDT Sat May 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SHASTA COUNTY...

At 246 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pollard Flat,
or 20 miles north of Shasta Dam, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm, as well as brief, heavy rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Lakehead-Lakeshore, Lakehead, Vollmers, Sims, Pollard Flat and
Fisher.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4095 12226 4079 12261 4085 12265 4090 12260
      4092 12262 4098 12260 4101 12253 4106 12252
      4107 12254 4109 12252 4109 12248 4113 12238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 066DEG 19KT 4100 12238

Rowe

The office that day

Everything else NWS Sacramento, CA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 7:48 PM PDTAreal Flood AdvisorySTOShasta, Tehama3 hr
May 15, 4:39 AM PDTSpecial Weather StatementSTOShasta81 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in California, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.