Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 480

August 31, 202155 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 31, 2021, 7:36 PM EDT for 55 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2021, 7:36 PM EDT (23:36 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2021, 3:00 AM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 55 counties

Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
30%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 7:50 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKGiles, Montgomery25 min
Aug 31, 9:35 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt25 min
Aug 31, 9:44 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKBotetourt, Craig, Roanoke5 hr
Aug 31, 9:58 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge32 min
Aug 31, 10:29 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle17 min
Aug 31, 10:39 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, Nelson36 min
Aug 31, 10:44 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKAmherst, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista31 min
Aug 31, 10:58 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, Nelson32 min
Aug 31, 11:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Waynesboro47 min
Aug 31, 11:23 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, City of Charlottesville37 min
Aug 31, 11:41 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXAlbemarle, City of Charlottesville87 min
Aug 31, 11:49 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, Rockingham, City of Waynesboro15 min
Aug 31, 11:56 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAlbemarle34 min
Sep 1, 12:18 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Madison, Orange42 min
Sep 1, 12:25 AM EDTTornado WarningLWXCulpeper, Madison, Orange35 min
Sep 1, 12:53 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange52 min
Sep 1, 1:09 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange51 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 46 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
46 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
107 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

462 
WWUS20 KWNS 312333
SEL0  
SPC WW 312333
NCZ000-VAZ000-010700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Extreme north-central North Carolina
  Western and central Virginia

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 735 PM
  until 300 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...One supercell formed and quickly became tornadic in the
Blacksburg area in the past hour, and overall tornado potential
should increase through the evening.  The threat should spread
northeastward over the watch area, as additional thunderstorms
develop in a favorably unstable air mass and interact with a
warm-frontal zone, where low-level shear is maximized.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
either side of a line from 30 miles southwest of Roanoke VA to 40
miles east northeast of Charlottesville VA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 6:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBland, Carroll, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles and 12 more93 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.