Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507

September 20, 202162 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 20 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 20, 2021, 2:07 PM CDT for 62 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 20 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 20, 2021, 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC)
Expired
Sep 20, 2021, 8:41 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 96 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Allamakee County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Rice County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Winona County, MN, Barron County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Grant County, WI, Jackson County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 3:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Madison, Union, Warren52 min
Sep 20, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXDodge, Fillmore, Mower, Olmsted43 min
Sep 20, 4:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Lucas, Marion, Warren52 min
Sep 20, 4:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXChickasaw, Floyd, Howard, Mitchell50 min
Sep 20, 4:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXFillmore, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, Winona45 min
Sep 20, 4:43 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXDunn, Pepin, Pierce14 min
Sep 20, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXLucas, Marion, Monroe, Warren48 min
Sep 20, 5:03 PM CDTTornado WarningARXFillmore27 min
Sep 20, 5:46 PM CDTTornado WarningARXBuffalo, Trempealeau29 min
Sep 20, 6:11 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedARXClark, Trempealeau19 min
Sep 20, 6:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Davis, Wayne41 min
Sep 20, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNDelaware38 min
Sep 20, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDavis35 min
Sep 20, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Jefferson, Keokuk, Washington47 min
Sep 20, 7:17 PM CDTTornado WarningARXRichland, Vernon28 min
Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXCrawford, Grant, Richland40 min
Sep 20, 7:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXJuneau, Monroe, Richland, Vernon34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-09-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 148 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-09-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 210 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
148 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1002 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
210 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

839 
WWUS20 KWNS 201906
SEL7  
SPC WW 201906
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-210300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Iowa
  Southeast Minnesota
  Western Wisconsin

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop rapidly this
afternoon along a cold front moving into southeast Minnesota and
central Iowa.  These storms will track quickly eastward across the
watch area, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail.  An isolated
tornado or two is also possible over western Wisconsin later this
afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Eau
Claire WI to 25 miles east of Lamoni IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 12:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Allamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk and 49 more2 hr
Sep 20, 3:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 49 more95 min
Sep 20, 5:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 30 more113 min
Sep 20, 5:14 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshland, Bayfield, Iron, Price, Sawyer, Washburn3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Iowa, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.