Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397

July 27, 202113 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 27, 2021, 8:03 PM CDT for 13 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2021, 8:03 PM CDT (01:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 36 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Worth County, IA, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Washington County, MN, Winona County, MN, Buffalo County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Richland County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 8:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXOlmsted, Wabasha, Winona45 min
Jul 27, 9:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXFillmore, Olmsted, Winona44 min
Jul 27, 9:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXFillmore, Olmsted42 min
Jul 28, 12:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBuchanan, Delaware40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4029 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 5 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4029 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1142 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
6.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

608 
WWUS20 KWNS 280100
SEL7  
SPC WW 280100
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-280700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
805 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Iowa
  Southeast Minnesota
  Southwest Wisconsin

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 805 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells should become established across a
portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley before developing into a
southward-moving cluster this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of
Rochester MN to 40 miles west of Dubuque IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 396...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
33020.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Cerro Gordo and 11 more87 min
Jul 27, 10:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Buchanan, Chickasaw, Clayton, Delaware and 5 more55 min
Jul 28, 12:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Buchanan, Clayton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson and 2 more55 min
Jul 28, 2:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 12 more2 hr
Jul 28, 10:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Itasca2 hr
Jul 28, 12:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKoochiching, Lake, Lake of the Woods, Saint Louis2 hr
Jul 28, 3:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeltrami, Clearwater, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen, Red Lake118 min
Jul 28, 5:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Chisago, Crow Wing and 7 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Iowa, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.