Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234

June 3, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 3, 2021, 2:48 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 3, 2021, 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC)
Expired
Jun 3, 2021, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt
All 84 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Greene County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 3:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, City of Winchester50 min
Jun 3, 3:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery46 min
Jun 3, 3:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery43 min
Jun 3, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Washington40 min
Jun 3, 3:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Culpeper, Greene, Madison, Orange, Page and 2 more49 min
Jun 3, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Fauquier, Loudoun52 min
Jun 3, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore33 min
Jun 3, 4:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Howard, City of Baltimore40 min
Jun 3, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford, City of Baltimore47 min
Jun 3, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange45 min
Jun 3, 4:51 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford9 min
Jun 3, 4:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery36 min
Jun 3, 4:59 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford16 min
Jun 3, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Chester27 min
Jun 3, 5:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford41 min
Jun 3, 5:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford49 min
Jun 3, 5:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHoward, Montgomery33 min
Jun 3, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQFluvanna, Louisa47 min
Jun 3, 5:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXOrange, Spotsylvania43 min
Jun 3, 5:59 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks, Chester108 min
Jun 3, 6:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's28 min
Jun 3, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil, Harford34 min
Jun 3, 6:19 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks, Chester, Montgomery115 min
Jun 3, 6:29 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXBaltimore, Harford3 hr
Jun 3, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem42 min
Jun 3, 6:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford39 min
Jun 3, 6:53 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXHarford10 min
Jun 3, 7:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 2 more38 min
Jun 3, 7:09 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHINew Castle2 hr
Jun 3, 8:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth30 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 73 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 116 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
73 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
511 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

798 
WWUS20 KWNS 031845
SEL4  
SPC WW 031845
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-040100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  Maryland
  New Jersey
  Southeast and Eastern Pennsylvania
  Northern and Eastern Virginia
  Far Eastern West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon initially across southeast Pennsylvania into
Maryland/Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity. A relatively moist/unstable
environment along with moderately strong southwesterly deep-layer
winds will support sustained multicells and potentially some
supercells. Thunderstorm-related wind damage is the most probable
risk, but some hail and a low tornado risk will exist as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Allentown PA to 45 miles east southeast of Charlottesville VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 1:46 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle119 min
Jun 3, 4:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle88 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.