Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203

May 25, 20218 counties in Michigan; 8 counties in Minnesota; 42 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 25, 2021, 3:53 PM EDT for 8 counties in Michigan; 8 counties in Minnesota; 42 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 25, 2021, 3:53 PM EDT (19:53 UTC)
Expired
May 25, 2021, 11:28 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 58 counties

Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 204 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Dunn, Saint Croix31 min
May 25, 4:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXWabasha54 min
May 25, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Chippewa, Dunn, Rusk25 min
May 25, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXPepin21 min
May 25, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXBuffalo60 min
May 25, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChippewa, Rusk44 min
May 25, 5:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXTaylor54 min
May 25, 5:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXBuffalo, Trempealeau40 min
May 25, 5:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChippewa25 min
May 25, 5:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLincoln67 min
May 25, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXTaylor44 min
May 25, 6:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXClark, Jackson64 min
May 25, 6:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTOntonagon32 min
May 25, 6:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTHoughton, Keweenaw29 min
May 25, 6:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMarathon, Portage, Wood56 min
May 25, 6:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTBaraga, Houghton, Ontonagon35 min
May 25, 6:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLanglade, Lincoln, Oneida63 min
May 25, 7:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMarathon, Portage, Wood39 min
May 25, 7:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBForest, Langlade, Oconto36 min
May 25, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTBaraga, Houghton, Marquette30 min
May 25, 9:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTAlger, Delta, Menominee45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 96 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 125 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
96 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-140 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1118 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

080 
WWUS20 KWNS 251950
SEL3  
SPC WW 251950
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Upper Michigan
  Southeast Minnesota
  Western and Northern Wisconsin
  Lake Superior

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and intensify this afternoon near/ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front. Very strong southwesterly winds through
a deep layer will support fast-moving and well-organized storms
including a few initial supercells aside from evolving
bands/clusters of storms. At least isolated instances of severe hail
and damaging winds will be the most common hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast
of Ironwood MI to 25 miles south southwest of La Crosse WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 3:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGogebic2 hr
May 25, 6:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGogebic, Iron, Ontonagon118 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.