Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152

May 6, 20216 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 6, 2021, 12:38 PM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 6, 2021, 12:38 PM CDT (17:38 UTC)
Expired
May 6, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 76 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Posey County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Carroll County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

12 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 6, 12:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHBollinger, Butler, Carter, Ripley, Stoddard, Wayne37 min
May 6, 1:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLawrence, Randolph57 min
May 6, 1:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHAlexander47 min
May 6, 1:24 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedPAHCape Girardeau, Scott31 min
May 6, 1:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGGreene47 min
May 6, 2:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Mississippi, Poinsett43 min
May 6, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett42 min
May 6, 3:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCalloway38 min
May 6, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHJefferson, Wayne38 min
May 6, 4:54 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHWayne36 min
May 6, 5:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHJohnson, Pope, Saline, Williamson38 min
May 6, 5:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHJohnson, Massac33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-05-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-05-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -90 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1719 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

774 
WWUS20 KWNS 061735
SEL2  
SPC WW 061735
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-062300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Far southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
  until 600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Multiple lower-topped supercells should develop within a
cluster of thunderstorms spreading east-southeast across the
Mid-Mississippi into the Lower Ohio Valleys. Large hail and damaging
winds should be the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Mount Vernon IL to 35 miles east southeast of Jonesboro AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
29035.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 6, 10:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Crittenden, Mississippi85 min
May 6, 12:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Randolph118 min
May 6, 2:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Mississippi and 1 more90 min
May 6, 9:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Clinton, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin and 7 more83 min
May 6, 1:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Christian, Coles, Cumberland, DeWitt, Douglas and 10 more2 hr
May 6, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, Franklin and 18 more94 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.