Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 998
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2021, 5:03 PM CDT for 15 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 18, 2021, 5:03 PM CDT (22:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 18, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 169 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1913 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
114
ACUS11 KWNS 182203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182203
MNZ000-182330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Areas affected...northern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182203Z - 182330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Recent thunderstorm development will likely continue this
afternoon and evening across northern Minnesota. A few severe gusts
or isolated severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. A
weather watch is likely not needed.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed several
developing thunderstorms across northern and northwestern Minnesota.
These storms are ongoing in a relatively dry post-frontal airmass
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the upper Midwest. Only
modest buoyancy, around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE, is present thanks to
strong diurnal heating and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8C/km.
The limited buoyancy suggests storm coverage should remain isolated
through the afternoon and evening. Some potential for damaging wind
gusts appears possible given a dry sub-cloud layer with T/TD spreads
near 40 degrees F. Some potential for marginally severe hail may
also exist with the stronger cores aloft as storms move into north
central Minnesota later this evening. Given limited storm coverage
and uncertainty regarding severe potential, a watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/18/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 48399583 48359460 48129395 47779368 47279342 46529376
46189477 46359562 46799649 47639671 48279621 48399583SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 7:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blue Earth, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn and 11 more | 88 min |
| Jun 17, 7:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Blue Earth, Brown, Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue and 9 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 17, 9:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Houston, Mower and 5 more | 89 min |
| Jun 17, 10:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 17, 10:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, Winona | 83 min |
| Jun 18, 1:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Houston | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.