Mesoscale Discussion 994

Issued

Jun 18, 2021, 12:52 PM CDT (17:52 UTC)

Expired

Jun 18, 2021, 2:15 PM CDT

In force

83 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Champaign County, IL, Ford County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Benton County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Grant County, IN, Howard County, IN, Miami County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

723 
ACUS11 KWNS 181753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181752 
INZ000-ILZ000-181915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...East-central IL into northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181752Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The short-term threat remains uncertain, but developing
convection is being monitored for any increase in coverage and
intensity, which would pose a conditional threat of hail and
damaging wind. Short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased along a narrow band
running from far east-central IL into northern IN, east of an
apparent MCV moving out of IA. While this convection is likely
elevated, it is occurring within an environment of steep midlevel
lapse rates, with strong diabatic heating underway downstream.
Locally severe hail is likely the primary short-term threat, as long
as the ongoing convection remains elevated and somewhat
disorganized. 

The more substantial, and also more uncertain, concern is for the
ongoing convection to continue to deepen, which would potentially
result in more intense and organized storms capable of a more
substantial hail and wind risk. While MLCINH is weakening across
portions of IL/IN as temperatures warm into the 90s F, it will
likely still take some time for storms to become rooted closer to
the surface, if they do at all, and it is possible that ongoing
convection will remain weak or dissipate this afternoon. Watch
issuance in the near term is considered unlikely, but will continue
to be reassessed if there is any sign of an uptick in the short-term
severe threat.

..Dean/Dial.. 06/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40008698 40018789 40228842 40638831 40888675 40968571
            40718543 40258573 40008698

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.