Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 958

June 13, 202115 counties in Colorado; 5 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2021, 4:59 PM MDT for 15 counties in Colorado; 5 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 13, 2021, 4:59 PM MDT (22:59 UTC)
Expired: Jun 13, 2021, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Bent County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 827 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -387 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

072 
ACUS11 KWNS 132259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132259 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132259Z - 140100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop along the Front Range of the Rockies over the next few
hours. A few storms may be strong to severe and pose a hail and/or
damaging wind risk. This threat should remain somewhat limited, and
a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows convective initiation well
underway across central CO within an upslope flow regime. Dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s along the central high Plains are supporting
MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg across northeast NM, increasing to
1500 J/kg across central/northeast CO. 40-50 knot flow (sampled by
KPUX and KFTG VWPs) between 5-7 km on the eastern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is supporting effective bulk shear values between
30-40 knots - sufficient for organized convection. Steep mid-level
lapse rates as well as 9 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates will support a hail
and damaging wind risk with any mature convection. Despite the
favorable environment, coverage of severe storms is expected to
generally be limited in nature due to weak forcing for ascent and
lingering MLCIN over the region. As such, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Dial.. 06/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36000502 37060506 38740507 39720512 40340510 40530440
            40380372 39940322 39200285 38720277 37440279 36090287
            35230347 34910385 34800435 34990491 35360496 36000502

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 12, 6:17 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Las Animas	118 min
Jun 13, 12:08 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, El Paso and 5 more	97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.