Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 947

June 13, 2021Mobile County, Alabama; 10 parishes in Louisiana; 24 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2021, 12:51 PM CDT for Mobile County, Alabama; 10 parishes in Louisiana; 24 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2021, 12:51 PM CDT (17:51 UTC)
Expired
Jun 13, 2021, 2:45 PM CDT
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 265
All 35 counties

Mobile County, AL, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2482 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2482 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

231 
ACUS11 KWNS 131751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131751 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Areas affected...southern MS...southwest AL...southeast LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...

Valid 131751Z - 131945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265
continues.

SUMMARY...A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water-vapor
imagery will likely focus storm development and severe potential
across southern MS and eventually northern parts of southeast LA
later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus
field over southern MS ahead of a weak mid-level vorticity maximum
located near Hattiesburg, MS early this afternoon.  Surface
conditions over southern MS and northeast LA have warmed into the
lower 90s deg F with mid to upper 70s dewpoints.  Steep surface to
1.5 km lapse rates were noted on the 18z Jackson, MS raob with 25-30
kt north-northeasterly flow in the 500-400 mb layer.  The
high-PW/very unstable environment will favor water-loaded downdrafts
with the more intense cores.  Strong to severe gusts ranging 50-70
mph are possible with the most intense storms.  Expecting initially
isolated storm coverage early this afternoon to further increase
into scattered coverage by late afternoon.  The wind damage hazard
will likely concentrate around a couple of linear clusters.

..Smith.. 06/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29848987 30439118 31459149 32189098 31748947 31008805
            30058823 29848987

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 10:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Colbert, Cullman, Fayette, Franklin, Greene and 10 more60 min
Jun 13, 12:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Fayette, Greene, Hale, Lamar and 9 more9 hr
Jun 13, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Greene, Marengo, Sumter2 hr
Jun 13, 3:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCovington, Jasper, Jones, Leake, Newton, Scott and 1 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.