Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 900
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2021, 5:18 PM CDT for 11 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 9, 2021, 5:18 PM CDT (22:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 9, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 213 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1926 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 120 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
944
ACUS11 KWNS 092219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092218
MNZ000-092345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021
Areas affected...Northern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092218Z - 092345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible into this evening, with
isolated damaging wind and hail possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across northern
MN, with additional development possible across northwest MN near a
surface boundary, as an MCV continues drifting over the area and a
stronger shortwave glances the region as it moves across southern
MB. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt will
favor some organization with the strongest storms.
Forward-propagating clusters capable of locally damaging wind appear
to be the primary threat, though a transient supercell cannot be
ruled out, which would also pose a conditional threat of hail or
perhaps a brief tornado.
Any threat will tend to diminish near/after sunset as the boundary
layer cools and stabilizes. Watch issuance is unlikely unless an
uptick in storm coverage and organization is observed in the next
1-2 hours.
..Dean/Dial.. 06/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48489588 49409509 49119383 48919304 48069274 48009273
47299277 46889329 46609389 46739518 47299631 47779656
48189622 48489588SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 1:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 12 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.