Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 895

June 9, 20215 counties in Arkansas; East Carroll Parish, Morehouse Parish, West Carroll Parish, Louisiana; 27 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2021, 12:06 PM CDT for 5 counties in Arkansas; East Carroll Parish, Morehouse Parish, West Carroll Parish, Louisiana; 27 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2021, 12:06 PM CDT (17:06 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 35 counties

Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1277 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 732 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

189 
ACUS11 KWNS 091706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091706 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...central into northern MS...far southeast AR...far
northeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091706Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wet microbursts will probably result in localized
gusts 45-60 mph and pockets of wind damage this afternoon.  The
disorganized character of the thunderstorm threat will likely
preclude a severe thunderstorm watch from being issued.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic shows developing
thunderstorms over north-central MS and a separate thunderstorm
cluster intersecting trailing outflow over northwest MS.  Cloud
breaks over north-central MS and mostly clear skies over central MS
will favor strong heating for the next few hours as temperatures
warm into the mid-upper 80s deg F.  A very moist airmass,
characterized by low-mid 70s dewpoints and PW around 2 inches, will
further destabilize and yield around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early
afternoon.  Weak flow through the troposphere will result in
slow-moving cells and clusters.  The main threat with the stronger
water-loaded cores (higher echo tops and marginally severe MESH
cores) will be localized gusts in the 45-60 mph range.  Pockets of
tree damage are anticipated to be the primary end-result with the
most intense storms.

..Smith/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33609252 33899125 34178995 33768845 32828855 32209030
            32649199 33609252

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 3:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland, Johnson and 12 more	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.