Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 888

June 8, 2021Dickinson County, Michigan; 4 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2021, 5:41 PM CDT for Dickinson County, Michigan; 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 8, 2021, 5:41 PM CDT (22:41 UTC)
Expired: Jun 8, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Dickinson County, MI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Price County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 610 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -97 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1171 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

904 
ACUS11 KWNS 082241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082241 
MIZ000-WIZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Areas affected...UP of Michigan...Northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082241Z - 090045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and wind gusts may be noted with storms this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Weak surface boundary, aided in part by Lake Superior
influences, has oriented itself from Dickinson County MI-northern
WI. Given the weak vertical wind profiles, strong boundary-layer
heating has been the primary mechanism for convective development
along the synoptic front across this region where surface-3km lapse
rates are near 9 C/km. Over the last few hours, a slow
conglomeration of storms have evolved near the wind shift and the
strongest updrafts appear to be producing hail at times. A gradual
south/southwest propagation is expected over the next few hours
before diurnal cooling leads to weakening updrafts. Primary threat
will be marginally severe hail, and some threat for gusty winds also
exists given the steep low-level lapse rates. Unless this activity
were to mature into a larger wind-producing MCS a severe
thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45779119 45888985 46108868 46238759 45838755 45518838
            45328934 45429079 45779119

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.