Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 880
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2021, 4:09 AM CDT for Cook County, Lake County, Minnesota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 8, 2021, 4:09 AM CDT (09:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 8, 2021, 6:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Cook County, MN, Lake County, MN
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 195 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2693 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 428 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
037
ACUS11 KWNS 080909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080909
MIZ000-MNZ000-081115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021
Areas affected...The Minnesota Arrowhead into western Lake Superior
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080909Z - 081115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for damaging surface gusts appears likely as an
organizing cluster of storms propagates across the remainder of the
Arrowhead of Minnesota, an north of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
through 6-8 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...An elevated cluster of storms appears to be undergoing
increasing organization, with a developing MCV and strengthening
rear inflow. Rooted within lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
this appears to have been supported by lift of moist air
characterized by moderate CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, in the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates and otherwise modest and weakly sheared
westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow. Given the stable
near-surface thermodynamic profiles, particularly as activity
approaches the shores of western Lake Superior, the potential for
downward mixing of 35-50+ kts of developing rear inflow to surface
appears limited. Furthermore, activity appears likely to track
north of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, along a mid-level thermal
gradient delineating the periphery of warmer and more strongly
capping elevated mixed-layer air.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
LAT...LON 48129151 48488896 48358789 47788776 47488872 47368996
47279112 47299166 47789145 48129151SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 11:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.