Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 874

June 7, 202110 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Mississippi; Fayette County, Shelby County, Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 7, 2021, 7:16 PM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Mississippi; Fayette County, Shelby County, Tennessee. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 7, 2021, 7:16 PM CDT (00:16 UTC)
Expired
Jun 7, 2021, 8:15 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%
All 32 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Prairie County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-06-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 705 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-06-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
678 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

304 
ACUS11 KWNS 080017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080016 
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

Areas affected...northern Mississippi...eastern Arkansas...and far
southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080016Z - 080115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is waning across eastern
Arkansas and northern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A line/cluster of storms continues to move northeast
across eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. These cores have
shown significant weakening over the past hour and reports have
followed with no reports of winds in excess of 30 to 40 mph
recently. Expect this trend to continue as the boundary layer cools
through the evening and the storms move away from better low-level
flow and thermodynamics.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34909204 35619113 35148883 34608829 34148814 33868856
            33838912 33829025 34249141 34909204

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 8, 11:17 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Columbia, Union118 min
Jun 8, 12:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 9 more6 hr
Jun 8, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIssaquena, Sharkey, Warren118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.