Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 851

June 4, 20219 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2021, 4:32 PM CDT for 9 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 4, 2021, 4:32 PM CDT (21:32 UTC)
Expired: Jun 4, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 170 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1704 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

066 
ACUS11 KWNS 042132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042132 
MNZ000-NDZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Areas affected...northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042132Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms forming within the surface trough may produce gusty
winds at times, but a watch is unlikely barring substantial storm
organization.

DISCUSSION...Hot conditions have developed near the surface trough,
with high-based convection already forming over northeast ND into
far northwest MN. MLCAPE is most likely only a few hundred J/kg
MLCAPE as surface dewpoints mix out. 

Lift within the surface trough as well as slight cooling aloft this
evening may support storms for several more hours despite eventual
capping due to cooling of the boundary layer. Deep-layer mean winds
will support east/southeast moving storms, with gusty wind potential
with Inverted-V soundings. More of a severe threat could occur over
the next few hours should outflow become more substantial/organized
than expected, but at this time a watch does not appear necessary.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48629358 48669323 48509303 48189299 47899328 47699431
            47349800 47509872 47819919 48199890 48469803 48739725
            49039663 49049530 49419518 49419487 49239469 48819451
            48629358

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.