Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 843
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2021, 12:26 PM CDT for 47 counties in Kentucky; 35 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 3, 2021, 12:26 PM CDT (17:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 3, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 82 counties
Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Green County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Bedford County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 300 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 837 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
580
ACUS11 KWNS 031726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031726
KYZ000-TNZ000-031930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021
Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031726Z - 031930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or
isolated hail are possible for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Multiple southwest-to-northeast oriented thunderstorm
bands have developed from central KY into middle TN ahead of the
upper low currently centered near the convergence of MS and OH
Rivers. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow aloft precedes this
upper low, stretching from northwest MS through the TN Valley and
through the northern Mid-Atlantic. Overall instability is modest
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis), but still
sufficient for thunderstorm development. Some localized increases in
buoyancy are possible in areas where cloud breaks and resulting
stronger diurnal heating occurs. Given this combination of buoyancy
and moderate flow aloft, a few stronger storms capable of damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail may develop. Overall duration and
coverage of any strong to severe storms is expected to be limited,
owing predominately to the lack of stronger buoyancy.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 38258528 38778445 38698382 38458369 37558407 36328444
35288540 35448821 38258528SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 9:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Hickman, Houston and 6 more | 85 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.