Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 824

May 31, 20215 counties in Michigan; Florence County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 12:53 PM EDT for 5 counties in Michigan; Florence County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 31, 2021, 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC)
Expired
May 31, 2021, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Iron County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Florence County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-05-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-05-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 63 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1526 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

737 
ACUS11 KWNS 311653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311653 
MIZ000-WIZ000-311900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Areas affected...Western Upper Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311653Z - 311900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe (around 1 inch) hail will be
possible this afternoon. Wind gust potential will increase as
surface temperatures warm. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a compact
shortwave trough now over the Minnesota arrowhead. These initial
storms will be capable of small to perhaps marginally severe (around
1 inch) hail. As surface temperatures continue to warm downstream of
these storms, the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts will
increase. Visible satellite also shows cumulus development along a
lake breeze front near the southern Upper Peninsula. The boundary
may serve as another focus for development later today. Even if
storms do not develop along the lake breeze front, storms that
interact with the boundary may briefly intensify. No WW is expected
today.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46708941 46978841 46538687 46128652 45788684 45578739
            45638830 46358957 46708941

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.